Agco Corporation Stock Price Prediction
| AGCO Stock | USD 101.46 2.07 2.08% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
42
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.01 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.4659 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.4258 | Wall Street Target Price 104 |
Using AGCO hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AGCO Corporation from the perspective of AGCO response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
AGCO Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AGCO's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AGCO. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AGCO can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AGCO Corporation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AGCO's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AGCO.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AGCO to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AGCO because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
AGCO after-hype prediction price | USD 101.3 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
AGCO |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AGCO's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AGCO After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AGCO at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AGCO or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AGCO, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AGCO Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AGCO's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AGCO's historical news coverage. AGCO's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 99.30 and 103.30, respectively. We have considered AGCO's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AGCO is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AGCO is based on 3 months time horizon.
AGCO Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AGCO is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AGCO backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AGCO, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 2.00 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 11 Events / Month | 11 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
101.46 | 101.30 | 0.16 |
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AGCO Hype Timeline
AGCO is presently traded for 101.46. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.21. AGCO is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 101.3. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on AGCO is about 177.1%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 101.67. About 17.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.79. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. AGCO has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.66. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of November 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 1st of February 1996. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out AGCO Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.AGCO Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AGCO's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AGCO's future price movements. Getting to know how AGCO's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AGCO may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
AGCO Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AGCO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AGCO using various technical indicators. When you analyze AGCO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About AGCO Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of AGCO stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as AGCO Corporation, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AGCO based on analysis of AGCO hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AGCO's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AGCO's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0411 | 0.0391 | 0.0504 | 0.0529 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.78 | 0.82 | 0.63 | 0.42 |
Story Coverage note for AGCO
The number of cover stories for AGCO depends on current market conditions and AGCO's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AGCO is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AGCO's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AGCO Short Properties
AGCO's future price predictability will typically decrease when AGCO's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AGCO Corporation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AGCO's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AGCO's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 74.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 595.5 M |
Check out AGCO Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Is Agricultural & Farm Machinery space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AGCO. If investors know AGCO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AGCO listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | Dividend Share 1.16 | Earnings Share 2.26 | Revenue Per Share 168.626 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.25) |
The market value of AGCO is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AGCO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AGCO's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AGCO's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AGCO's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AGCO's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AGCO's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AGCO is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AGCO's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.