Alaska Air Group Stock Beneish M Score

0HC3 Stock   52.65  0.15  0.28%   
This module uses fundamental data of Alaska Air to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Alaska Air M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Alaska Air Group. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
  
At this time, Alaska Air's Short and Long Term Debt Total is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Net Debt is likely to gain to about 3.7 B in 2024, whereas Long Term Debt is likely to drop slightly above 2.1 B in 2024.
At this time, Alaska Air's M Score is inapplicable. The earnings manipulation may begin if Alaska Air's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Alaska Air executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Alaska Air's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-2.71
Beneish M Score - Inapplicable
Elasticity of Receivables

1.0

Focus
Asset Quality

1.94

Focus
Expense Coverage

1.0

Focus
Gross Margin Strengs

N/A

Focus
Accruals Factor

1.0

Focus
Depreciation Resistance

0.81

Focus
Net Sales Growth

1.05

Focus
Financial Leverage Condition

1.0

Focus

Alaska Air Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Alaska Air's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Net Receivables402.1 M383 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Revenue10.9 B10.4 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Assets16.6 B15.8 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Current Assets1.4 B2.7 B
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Non Current Assets Total12.5 B11.9 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Property Plant Equipment7.8 B9.3 B
Fairly Down
Slightly volatile
Depreciation And Amortization473.6 M451 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Selling General Administrative3.1 B2.9 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Current Liabilities4.7 B4.5 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Non Current Liabilities Total7.6 B7.3 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Long Term Debt2.1 B2.5 B
Fairly Down
Pretty Stable
Short Term InvestmentsB1.5 B
Way Down
Slightly volatile

Alaska Air Group Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Alaska Air's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Alaska Air in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Alaska Air's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Alaska Air Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Depreciation And Amortization

473.55 Million

At this time, Alaska Air's Depreciation And Amortization is comparatively stable compared to the past year.

Alaska Air Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Alaska Air. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Net Receivables323M480M546M296M383M402.2M
Total Revenue8.8B3.6B6.2B9.6B10.4B10.9B
Total Assets14.0B15.2B15.0B15.3B15.8B16.6B
Total Current Assets2.0B4.0B3.9B3.0B2.7B1.4B
Net Debt3.0B3.7B3.6B3.4B3.5B3.7B
Short Term Debt509M1.4B640M504M511M536.6M
Long Term Debt1.6B1.3B2.4B2.2B2.5B2.1B
Operating Income1.1B(1.7B)(344M)557M394M250.1M
Investments(136M)(644M)(706M)455M409.5M430.0M

About Alaska Air Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Alaska Air Group's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Alaska Air using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alaska Air Group based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.

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Additional Tools for Alaska Stock Analysis

When running Alaska Air's price analysis, check to measure Alaska Air's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alaska Air is operating at the current time. Most of Alaska Air's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alaska Air's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alaska Air's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alaska Air to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.