Avalonbay Communities Stock Beneish M Score

AVB Stock  USD 231.94  1.31  0.57%   
This module uses fundamental data of AvalonBay Communities to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. AvalonBay Communities M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Check out AvalonBay Communities Piotroski F Score and AvalonBay Communities Altman Z Score analysis.
For information on how to trade AvalonBay Stock refer to our How to Trade AvalonBay Stock guide.
  
At present, AvalonBay Communities' Net Debt To EBITDA is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Debt To Equity is expected to grow to 0.92, whereas Short and Long Term Debt Total is forecasted to decline to about 4.7 B. At present, AvalonBay Communities' Dividend Yield is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Book Value Per Share is expected to grow to 87.57, whereas Price To Sales Ratio is forecasted to decline to 7.26.
At this time, it appears that AvalonBay Communities is a possible manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if AvalonBay Communities' top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by AvalonBay Communities executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of AvalonBay Communities' earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-0.66
Beneish M Score - Possible Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables

1.0

Focus
Asset Quality

5.03

Focus
Expense Coverage

1.0

Focus
Gross Margin Strengs

1.12

Focus
Accruals Factor

1.0

Focus
Depreciation Resistance

1.17

Focus
Net Sales Growth

1.05

Focus
Financial Leverage Condition

1.01

Focus

AvalonBay Communities Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if AvalonBay Communities' auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Total Revenue2.9 B2.8 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Assets10.9 B20.7 B
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Total Current Assets926.2 M882.1 M
Sufficiently Up
Very volatile
Non Current Assets Total11.2 B19.8 B
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Depreciation And Amortization460.1 M817 M
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Selling General Administrative80.4 M76.5 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Current Liabilities357.2 M709.9 M
Way Down
Very volatile
Non Current Liabilities Total4.7 B8.2 B
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Net Debt4.1 B7.7 B
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Short Term Debt14.6 M15.3 M
Notably Down
Slightly volatile
Long Term Debt5.4 BB
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Operating Income1.8 B1.7 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Cash From Operating Activities1.6 B1.6 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Short Term InvestmentsM5.2 M
Notably Down
Slightly volatile
Long Term Investments209.1 M220.1 M
Notably Down
Pretty Stable
Gross Profit Margin0.720.6447
Moderately Up
Very volatile

AvalonBay Communities Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between AvalonBay Communities' different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards AvalonBay Communities in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find AvalonBay Communities' degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About AvalonBay Communities Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Other Operating Expenses

795.58 Million

At present, AvalonBay Communities' Other Operating Expenses is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting.

AvalonBay Communities Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as AvalonBay Communities. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Total Revenue2.3B2.3B2.3B2.6B2.8B2.9B
Total Assets19.1B19.2B19.9B20.5B20.7B10.9B
Total Current Assets161.8M362.5M596.1M771.1M882.1M926.2M
Net Debt7.3B7.3B7.7B7.7B7.7B4.1B
Short Term Debt131.9M37.1M108.3M358.3M15.3M14.6M
Long Term Debt7.4B7.7B8.1B8.3B8.0B5.4B
Operating Income845.6M716.9M651.3M822.1M1.7B1.8B
Investments12.5M14.3M64.4M26.1M(794.8M)(755.1M)

AvalonBay Communities ESG Sustainability

Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, AvalonBay Communities' sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to AvalonBay Communities' managers, analysts, and investors.
Environmental
Governance
Social

About AvalonBay Communities Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze AvalonBay Communities's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of AvalonBay Communities using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of AvalonBay Communities based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.

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When determining whether AvalonBay Communities offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of AvalonBay Communities' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Avalonbay Communities Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Avalonbay Communities Stock:
Check out AvalonBay Communities Piotroski F Score and AvalonBay Communities Altman Z Score analysis.
For information on how to trade AvalonBay Stock refer to our How to Trade AvalonBay Stock guide.
You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Multi-Family Residential REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AvalonBay Communities. If investors know AvalonBay will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AvalonBay Communities listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.161
Dividend Share
6.75
Earnings Share
7.31
Revenue Per Share
20.613
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.094
The market value of AvalonBay Communities is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AvalonBay that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AvalonBay Communities' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AvalonBay Communities' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AvalonBay Communities' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AvalonBay Communities' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AvalonBay Communities' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AvalonBay Communities is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AvalonBay Communities' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.