Aspen Technology Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| AZPN Stock | USD 250.94 0.09 0.04% |
Aspen | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
Aspen Technology Company odds of distress Analysis
Aspen Technology's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current Aspen Technology Probability Of Bankruptcy | Less than 8% |
Most of Aspen Technology's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Aspen Technology is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Aspen Technology probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Aspen Technology odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Aspen Technology financial health.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aspen Technology. If investors know Aspen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aspen Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.682 | Earnings Share (0.58) | Revenue Per Share 17.245 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.13) | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Aspen Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aspen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aspen Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aspen Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aspen Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aspen Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aspen Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aspen Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aspen Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Aspen Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Aspen Technology is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Aspen Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Aspen Technology's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Aspen Technology's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Aspen Technology's interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, Aspen Technology has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 8.0%. This is 80.23% lower than that of the Software sector and significantly higher than that of the Information Technology industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 79.91% higher than that of the company.
Aspen Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Aspen Technology's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Aspen Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aspen Technology by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.Aspen Technology is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among its peers.
Aspen Technology Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Return On Assets | 0.19 | 0.22 | 0.002802 | (0.007439) | (6.94E-4) | (6.6E-4) | |
| Asset Turnover | 0.48 | 0.49 | 0.0322 | 0.0721 | 0.0801 | 0.0761 | |
| Net Debt | 179.6M | (50.2M) | (97.0M) | (172.8M) | (139.0M) | (132.0M) | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 219.8M | 141.5M | 300.9M | 352.4M | 337.4M | 231.6M | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 519.0M | 511.7M | 1.5B | 1.1B | 921.5M | 967.5M | |
| Total Assets | 1.2B | 1.5B | 15.0B | 14.5B | 14.1B | 14.8B | |
| Total Current Assets | 650.2M | 768.3M | 1.0B | 833.1M | 876.1M | 919.9M | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | 243.3M | 276.1M | 230.4M | 299.2M | 339.9M | 356.9M |
Aspen Technology ESG Sustainability
Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Aspen Technology's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Aspen Technology's managers, analysts, and investors.Environmental | Governance | Social |
Aspen Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | -0.0028 | ||||
| Return On Asset | -0.0051 | ||||
| Profit Margin | (0.03) % | ||||
| Operating Margin | (0.41) % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 15.74 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 63.25 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 57.60 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 47.34 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 1.35 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 62.82 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 1.24 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 14.50 X | ||||
| Revenue | 1.13 B | ||||
| Gross Profit | 331.87 M | ||||
| EBITDA | 403.47 M | ||||
| Net Income | (9.77 M) | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 382.46 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 5.93 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 98 M | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 0.03 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 3.48 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 201.64 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 339.89 M | ||||
| Short Ratio | 10.43 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | (0.58) X | ||||
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 4.48 X | ||||
| Target Price | 243.15 | ||||
| Number Of Employees | 1.19 K | ||||
| Beta | 0.76 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 15.87 B | ||||
| Total Asset | 14.07 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | (51.16 M) | ||||
| Working Capital | 538.66 M | ||||
| Current Asset | 240.14 M | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 164.02 M | ||||
| Annual Yield | 0.01 % | ||||
| Net Asset | 14.07 B |
About Aspen Technology Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Aspen Technology's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Aspen Technology using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Aspen Technology based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Pair Trading with Aspen Technology
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aspen Technology position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aspen Technology will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Aspen Stock
| 0.69 | DJCO | Daily Journal Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.68 | AI | C3 Ai Inc Trending | PairCorr |
| 0.84 | BL | Blackline | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | DT | Dynatrace Holdings LLC Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
Moving against Aspen Stock
| 0.72 | VERB | VERB TECHNOLOGY PANY Trending | PairCorr |
| 0.53 | EGAN | eGain | PairCorr |
| 0.48 | VTEX | VTEX | PairCorr |
| 0.36 | DMAN | Innovativ Media Group | PairCorr |
| 0.35 | VCSA | Vacasa Inc | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aspen Technology could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aspen Technology when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aspen Technology - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aspen Technology to buy it.
The correlation of Aspen Technology is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aspen Technology moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aspen Technology moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aspen Technology can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Aspen Technology Piotroski F Score and Aspen Technology Altman Z Score analysis. To learn how to invest in Aspen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aspen Technology guide.You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aspen Technology. If investors know Aspen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aspen Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.682 | Earnings Share (0.58) | Revenue Per Share 17.245 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.13) | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Aspen Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aspen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aspen Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aspen Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aspen Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aspen Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aspen Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aspen Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aspen Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.