Old Second Bancorp Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| OSBC Stock | USD 18.71 0.20 1.08% |
Old | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
Old Second Bancorp Company probability of distress Analysis
Old Second's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current Old Second Probability Of Bankruptcy | Less than 5% |
Most of Old Second's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Old Second Bancorp is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Old Second probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Old Second odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Old Second Bancorp financial health.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Old Second. If investors know Old will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Old Second listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Dividend Share 0.2 | Earnings Share 1.85 | Revenue Per Share 5.896 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
The market value of Old Second Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Old that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Old Second's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Old Second's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Old Second's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Old Second's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Old Second's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Old Second is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Old Second's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Old Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Old Second is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Old Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Old Second's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Old Second's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Old Second's interrelated accounts and indicators.
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The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, Old Second Bancorp has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 5.0%. This is 89.99% lower than that of the Banks sector and significantly higher than that of the Financials industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 87.45% higher than that of the company.
Old Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Old Second's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Old Second could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Old Second by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.Old Second is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among its peers.
Old Second Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Return On Assets | 0.015 | 0.00915 | 0.003227 | 0.0114 | 0.016 | 0.008186 | |
| Asset Turnover | 0.0499 | 0.0418 | 0.0215 | 0.0416 | 0.051 | 0.0512 | |
| Net Debt | 106.5M | (236.4M) | (603.6M) | 113.5M | 390.0M | 409.5M | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 48.5M | 23.4M | 19.1M | 90M | 3.9B | 4.1B | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 108.7M | 93.5M | 148.5M | 90M | 5.1B | 5.4B | |
| Total Assets | 2.6B | 3.0B | 6.2B | 5.9B | 5.7B | 6.0B | |
| Total Current Assets | 655.0M | 967.7M | 2.6B | 1.9B | 100.1M | 95.1M | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | 52.6M | 26.0M | 31.0M | 97.3M | 116.4M | 122.2M |
Old Second ESG Sustainability
Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Old Second's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Old Second's managers, analysts, and investors.Environmental | Governance | Social |
Old Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | 0.14 | ||||
| Return On Asset | 0.0148 | ||||
| Profit Margin | 0.32 % | ||||
| Operating Margin | 0.45 % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 1.2 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 44.85 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 4.77 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 73.40 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 246.96 K | ||||
| Price To Earning | 13.09 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 1.27 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 3.18 X | ||||
| Revenue | 291.97 M | ||||
| Gross Profit | 242.72 M | ||||
| EBITDA | 131.35 M | ||||
| Net Income | 91.73 M | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 281.34 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 6.31 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 490.15 M | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 12.32 % | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 14.75 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 116.4 M | ||||
| Short Ratio | 0.91 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | 1.85 X | ||||
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.60 X | ||||
| Target Price | 20.17 | ||||
| Number Of Employees | 834 | ||||
| Beta | 1.06 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 839.21 M | ||||
| Total Asset | 5.72 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | 393.31 M | ||||
| Annual Yield | 0.01 % | ||||
| Five Year Return | 0.60 % | ||||
| Net Asset | 5.72 B | ||||
| Last Dividend Paid | 0.2 |
About Old Second Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Old Second Bancorp's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Old Second using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Old Second Bancorp based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Old Second Bancorp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Old Second's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Old Second Bancorp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Old Second Bancorp Stock:Check out Old Second Piotroski F Score and Old Second Altman Z Score analysis. You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Old Second. If investors know Old will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Old Second listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Dividend Share 0.2 | Earnings Share 1.85 | Revenue Per Share 5.896 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
The market value of Old Second Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Old that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Old Second's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Old Second's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Old Second's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Old Second's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Old Second's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Old Second is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Old Second's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.