Weichai Heavy (China) Market Value
| 000880 Stock | 11.84 0.94 7.36% |
| Symbol | Weichai |
Weichai Heavy 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Weichai Heavy's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Weichai Heavy.
| 10/24/2024 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Weichai Heavy on October 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Weichai Heavy Machinery or generate 0.0% return on investment in Weichai Heavy over 30 days. Weichai Heavy is related to or competes with Shenzhen Topway, Vanfund Urban, Nantong Haixing, Zoje Resources, Shenzhen Clou, Epoxy Base, and Jiangsu Financial. Weichai Heavy is entity of China. It is traded as Stock on SHE exchange. More
Weichai Heavy Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Weichai Heavy's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Weichai Heavy Machinery upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.0 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0444 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 20.02 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.66) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.13 |
Weichai Heavy Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Weichai Heavy's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Weichai Heavy's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Weichai Heavy historical prices to predict the future Weichai Heavy's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0628 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3793 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.24) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0444 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.27) |
Weichai Heavy Machinery Backtested Returns
Weichai Heavy appears to be somewhat reliable, given 3 months investment horizon. Weichai Heavy Machinery shows Sharpe Ratio of 0.16, which attests that the company had a 0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By examining Weichai Heavy's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.64% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize Weichai Heavy's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.26), downside deviation of 4.0, and Mean Deviation of 2.8 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Weichai Heavy holds a performance score of 12. The firm maintains a market beta of -1.03, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market becomes more bullish, returns on owning Weichai Heavy are expected to decrease slowly. On the other hand, during market turmoil, Weichai Heavy is expected to outperform it slightly. Please check Weichai Heavy's semi deviation, coefficient of variation, and the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to make a quick decision on whether Weichai Heavy's historical returns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.77 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Weichai Heavy Machinery has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Weichai Heavy time series from 24th of October 2024 to 8th of November 2024 and 8th of November 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Weichai Heavy Machinery price movement. The serial correlation of -0.77 indicates that around 77.0% of current Weichai Heavy price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.77 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.43 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.42 |
Weichai Heavy Machinery lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Weichai Heavy stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Weichai Heavy's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Weichai Heavy returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Weichai Heavy has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Weichai Heavy regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Weichai Heavy stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Weichai Heavy stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Weichai Heavy stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Weichai Heavy Lagged Returns
When evaluating Weichai Heavy's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Weichai Heavy stock have on its future price. Weichai Heavy autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Weichai Heavy autocorrelation shows the relationship between Weichai Heavy stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Weichai Heavy Machinery.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Weichai Stock
Weichai Heavy financial ratios help investors to determine whether Weichai Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Weichai with respect to the benefits of owning Weichai Heavy security.