JD (Germany) Market Value
| 013C Stock | 17.50 0.09 0.52% |
| Symbol | JD |
JD 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to JD's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of JD.
| 06/08/2023 |
| 11/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in JD on June 8, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding JD Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in JD over 540 days. JD is related to or competes with Tencent Holdings, Baidu, and BYD Company. More
JD Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure JD's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess JD Inc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.13 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1339 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 24.01 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.04) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.36 |
JD Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for JD's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as JD's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use JD historical prices to predict the future JD's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1343 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6817 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0474 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1744 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (3.87) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of JD's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
JD Inc Backtested Returns
JD appears to be somewhat reliable, given 3 months investment horizon. JD Inc retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.15, which attests that the entity had a 0.15% return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. By inspecting JD's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.63% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize JD's Standard Deviation of 4.08, semi deviation of 2.74, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (3.86) to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, JD holds a performance score of 12. The company owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of -0.17, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning JD are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, JD is likely to outperform the market. Please check JD's semi deviation, coefficient of variation, and the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to make a quick decision on whether JD's current price history will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.48 |
Modest reverse predictability
JD Inc has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between JD time series from 8th of June 2023 to 4th of March 2024 and 4th of March 2024 to 29th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of JD Inc price movement. The serial correlation of -0.48 indicates that about 48.0% of current JD price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.48 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.47 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 6.97 |
JD Inc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is JD stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting JD's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of JD returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that JD has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
JD regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If JD stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if JD stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in JD stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
JD Lagged Returns
When evaluating JD's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of JD stock have on its future price. JD autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, JD autocorrelation shows the relationship between JD stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in JD Inc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in JD Stock
JD financial ratios help investors to determine whether JD Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in JD with respect to the benefits of owning JD security.