Novavax (UK) Market Value
| 0A3S Stock | 11.90 3.06 34.62% |
| Symbol | Novavax |
Novavax 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Novavax's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Novavax.
| 12/12/2022 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Novavax on December 12, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Novavax or generate 0.0% return on investment in Novavax over 720 days. Novavax is related to or competes with Taylor Maritime, Evolution Gaming, Bloomsbury Publishing, Molson Coors, New Residential, Investment, and Lords Grp. Novavax is entity of United Kingdom. It is traded as Stock on LSE exchange. More
Novavax Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Novavax's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Novavax upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 14.79 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0492 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 74.87 | |||
| Value At Risk | (22.44) | |||
| Potential Upside | 27.27 |
Novavax Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Novavax's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Novavax's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Novavax historical prices to predict the future Novavax's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0552 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.9562 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.38) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0425 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.48) |
Novavax Backtested Returns
Novavax appears to be risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Novavax has Sharpe Ratio of 0.06, which conveys that the firm had a 0.06% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Novavax's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.77% is justified by implied risk. Please exercise Novavax's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0552, mean deviation of 7.14, and Downside Deviation of 14.79 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Novavax holds a performance score of 4. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -1.57, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Novavax are expected to decrease by larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoil, Novavax is expected to outperform it. Please check Novavax's total risk alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Novavax's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.32 |
Poor reverse predictability
Novavax has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Novavax time series from 12th of December 2022 to 7th of December 2023 and 7th of December 2023 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Novavax price movement. The serial correlation of -0.32 indicates that nearly 32.0% of current Novavax price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.32 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.05 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 12.49 |
Novavax lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Novavax stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Novavax's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Novavax returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Novavax has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Novavax regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Novavax stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Novavax stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Novavax stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Novavax Lagged Returns
When evaluating Novavax's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Novavax stock have on its future price. Novavax autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Novavax autocorrelation shows the relationship between Novavax stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Novavax.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Novavax Stock Analysis
When running Novavax's price analysis, check to measure Novavax's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novavax is operating at the current time. Most of Novavax's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novavax's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novavax's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novavax to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.