Fortuna Silver's market value is the price at which a share of Fortuna Silver trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Fortuna Silver Mines investors about its performance. Fortuna Silver is selling for under 6.42 as of the 10th of January 2025; that is 1.68% down since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 6.42. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Fortuna Silver Mines and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Fortuna Silver over a given investment horizon. Check out Fortuna Silver Correlation, Fortuna Silver Volatility and Fortuna Silver Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Fortuna Silver.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fortuna Silver's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fortuna Silver is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fortuna Silver's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Fortuna Silver 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Fortuna Silver's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Fortuna Silver.
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Fortuna Silver's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Fortuna Silver Mines upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Fortuna Silver's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Fortuna Silver's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Fortuna Silver historical prices to predict the future Fortuna Silver's volatility.
Currently, Fortuna Silver Mines is relatively risky. Fortuna Silver Mines secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0072, which denotes the company had a 0.0072% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Fortuna Silver Mines, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Fortuna Silver's Downside Deviation of 4.61, mean deviation of 3.83, and Coefficient Of Variation of 3676.58 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0346%. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0404, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Fortuna Silver are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Fortuna Silver is likely to outperform the market. Fortuna Silver Mines right now shows a risk of 4.78%. Please confirm Fortuna Silver Mines coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, sortino ratio, as well as the relationship between the information ratio and total risk alpha , to decide if Fortuna Silver Mines will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation
-0.73
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Fortuna Silver Mines has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Fortuna Silver time series from 11th of December 2024 to 26th of December 2024 and 26th of December 2024 to 10th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Fortuna Silver Mines price movement. The serial correlation of -0.73 indicates that around 73.0% of current Fortuna Silver price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient
-0.73
Spearman Rank Test
-0.8
Residual Average
0.0
Price Variance
0.02
Fortuna Silver Mines lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Fortuna Silver stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Fortuna Silver's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Fortuna Silver returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Fortuna Silver has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Timeline
Fortuna Silver regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Fortuna Silver stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Fortuna Silver stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Fortuna Silver stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Timeline
Fortuna Silver Lagged Returns
When evaluating Fortuna Silver's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Fortuna Silver stock have on its future price. Fortuna Silver autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Fortuna Silver autocorrelation shows the relationship between Fortuna Silver stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Fortuna Silver Mines.
Regressed Prices
Timeline
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When running Fortuna Silver's price analysis, check to measure Fortuna Silver's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fortuna Silver is operating at the current time. Most of Fortuna Silver's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fortuna Silver's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fortuna Silver's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fortuna Silver to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.