China Development (Germany) Market Value
| 2C6 Stock | 0.13 0.02 13.33% |
| Symbol | China |
China Development 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to China Development's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of China Development.
| 09/24/2024 |
| 01/22/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in China Development on September 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding China Development Bank or generate 0.0% return on investment in China Development over 120 days.
China Development Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure China Development's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess China Development Bank upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 9.94 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 28.72 | |||
| Value At Risk | (7.14) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.69 |
China Development Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for China Development's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as China Development's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use China Development historical prices to predict the future China Development's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0112 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.15) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0103 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Development's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
China Development Bank Backtested Returns
China Development Bank secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of close to zero, which signifies that the company had a close to zero % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. China Development Bank exposes twenty-seven different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm China Development's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0112, downside deviation of 9.94, and Mean Deviation of 2.48 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.72, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, China Development's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding China Development is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, China Development Bank has a negative expected return of -0.041%. Please make sure to confirm China Development's semi deviation, jensen alpha, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the coefficient of variation and sortino ratio , to decide if China Development Bank performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.29 |
Weak reverse predictability
China Development Bank has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between China Development time series from 24th of September 2024 to 23rd of November 2024 and 23rd of November 2024 to 22nd of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of China Development Bank price movement. The serial correlation of -0.29 indicates that nearly 29.0% of current China Development price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.29 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.01 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
China Development Bank lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is China Development stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting China Development's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of China Development returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that China Development has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
China Development regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If China Development stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if China Development stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in China Development stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
China Development Lagged Returns
When evaluating China Development's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of China Development stock have on its future price. China Development autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, China Development autocorrelation shows the relationship between China Development stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in China Development Bank.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for China Stock Analysis
When running China Development's price analysis, check to measure China Development's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Development is operating at the current time. Most of China Development's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Development's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Development's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Development to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.