Etsy (Germany) Market Value
| 3E2 Stock | EUR 51.73 0.39 0.76% |
| Symbol | Etsy |
Etsy 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Etsy's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Etsy.
| 02/09/2023 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Etsy on February 9, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Etsy Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Etsy over 660 days. Etsy is related to or competes with Square, Shopify, Teladoc, and CrowdStrike Holdings. Etsy, Inc. operates Etsy.com, an online market place for buyers and sellers to sell goods primarily in the United States... More
Etsy Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Etsy's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Etsy Inc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.35 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.64 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.06) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.66 |
Etsy Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Etsy's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Etsy's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Etsy historical prices to predict the future Etsy's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0324 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0619 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.37) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.6077 |
Etsy Inc Backtested Returns
At this point, Etsy is very steady. Etsy Inc secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0417, which denotes the company had a 0.0417% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Etsy Inc, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Etsy's Downside Deviation of 2.35, coefficient of variation of 3020.8, and Mean Deviation of 1.82 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.11%. Etsy has a performance score of 3 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.13, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Etsy's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Etsy is expected to be smaller as well. Etsy Inc right now shows a risk of 2.66%. Please confirm Etsy Inc total risk alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to decide if Etsy Inc will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.80 |
Very good predictability
Etsy Inc has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Etsy time series from 9th of February 2023 to 5th of January 2024 and 5th of January 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Etsy Inc price movement. The serial correlation of 0.8 indicates that around 80.0% of current Etsy price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.8 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.77 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 54.92 |
Etsy Inc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Etsy stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Etsy's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Etsy returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Etsy has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Etsy regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Etsy stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Etsy stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Etsy stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Etsy Lagged Returns
When evaluating Etsy's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Etsy stock have on its future price. Etsy autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Etsy autocorrelation shows the relationship between Etsy stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Etsy Inc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Etsy Stock
When determining whether Etsy Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Etsy's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Etsy Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Etsy Inc Stock:Check out Etsy Correlation, Etsy Volatility and Etsy Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Etsy. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Etsy technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.