Long Yuan (China) Market Value
| 600491 Stock | 3.98 0.16 3.86% |
| Symbol | Long |
Long Yuan 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Long Yuan's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Long Yuan.
| 10/24/2024 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Long Yuan on October 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Long Yuan Construction or generate 0.0% return on investment in Long Yuan over 30 days. Long Yuan is related to or competes with Mango Excellent, Guangzhou Jinyi, New Hope, Beijing Sanyuan, Gan Yuan, Dhc Software, and Duzhe Publishing. Long Yuan is entity of China. It is traded as Stock on SHG exchange. More
Long Yuan Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Long Yuan's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Long Yuan Construction upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.45 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1644 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 19.24 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.21) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.54 |
Long Yuan Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Long Yuan's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Long Yuan's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Long Yuan historical prices to predict the future Long Yuan's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1619 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.7081 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1458 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1713 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 23.41 |
Long Yuan Construction Backtested Returns
Long Yuan appears to be unstable, given 3 months investment horizon. Long Yuan Construction has Sharpe Ratio of 0.22, which conveys that the firm had a 0.22% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Long Yuan's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.83% is justified by implied risk. Please exercise Long Yuan's Downside Deviation of 3.45, risk adjusted performance of 0.1619, and Mean Deviation of 2.57 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Long Yuan holds a performance score of 17. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.0304, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Long Yuan's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Long Yuan is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Long Yuan's standard deviation, total risk alpha, and the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to make a quick decision on whether Long Yuan's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.39 |
Poor reverse predictability
Long Yuan Construction has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Long Yuan time series from 24th of October 2024 to 8th of November 2024 and 8th of November 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Long Yuan Construction price movement. The serial correlation of -0.39 indicates that just about 39.0% of current Long Yuan price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.39 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.64 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Long Yuan Construction lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Long Yuan stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Long Yuan's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Long Yuan returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Long Yuan has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Long Yuan regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Long Yuan stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Long Yuan stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Long Yuan stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Long Yuan Lagged Returns
When evaluating Long Yuan's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Long Yuan stock have on its future price. Long Yuan autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Long Yuan autocorrelation shows the relationship between Long Yuan stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Long Yuan Construction.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Long Stock
Long Yuan financial ratios help investors to determine whether Long Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Long with respect to the benefits of owning Long Yuan security.