Gem Year (China) Market Value
| 601002 Stock | 4.40 0.08 1.79% |
| Symbol | Gem |
Gem Year 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gem Year's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gem Year.
| 10/24/2024 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gem Year on October 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Gem Year Industrial Co or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gem Year over 30 days. Gem Year is related to or competes with Tieling Newcity, Hubei Geoway, Xiandai Investment, Zoje Resources, Citic Guoan, and Zhejiang Kingland. Gem Year is entity of China. It is traded as Stock on SHG exchange. More
Gem Year Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gem Year's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Gem Year Industrial Co upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.6 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.172 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.8 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.38) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.19 |
Gem Year Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gem Year's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gem Year's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gem Year historical prices to predict the future Gem Year's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1659 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.7388 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2273 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2035 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.57) |
Gem Year Industrial Backtested Returns
Gem Year appears to be relatively risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Gem Year Industrial holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.24, which attests that the entity had a 0.24% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By evaluating Gem Year's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.76% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize Gem Year's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.56), risk adjusted performance of 0.1659, and Downside Deviation of 2.6 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Gem Year holds a performance score of 18. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -1.11, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market becomes more bullish, returns on owning Gem Year are expected to decrease slowly. On the other hand, during market turmoil, Gem Year is expected to outperform it slightly. Please check Gem Year's downside deviation, standard deviation, total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to make a quick decision on whether Gem Year's current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.77 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Gem Year Industrial Co has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gem Year time series from 24th of October 2024 to 8th of November 2024 and 8th of November 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gem Year Industrial price movement. The serial correlation of -0.77 indicates that around 77.0% of current Gem Year price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.77 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.73 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Gem Year Industrial lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gem Year stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gem Year's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gem Year returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gem Year has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Gem Year regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gem Year stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gem Year stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gem Year stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Gem Year Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gem Year's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gem Year stock have on its future price. Gem Year autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gem Year autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gem Year stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Gem Year Industrial Co.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Gem Stock
Gem Year financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gem Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gem with respect to the benefits of owning Gem Year security.