Grand Fortune (Taiwan) Market Value
| 6026 Stock | TWD 12.55 0.10 0.79% |
| Symbol | Grand |
Grand Fortune 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Grand Fortune's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Grand Fortune.
| 12/19/2023 |
| 12/13/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Grand Fortune on December 19, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Grand Fortune Securities or generate 0.0% return on investment in Grand Fortune over 360 days. Grand Fortune is related to or competes with IBF Financial, Capital Securities, President Securities, China Bills, Yuanta Futures, Capital Futures, and Concord Securities. ,Ltd provides securities underwriting and brokerage services in Taiwan More
Grand Fortune Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Grand Fortune's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Grand Fortune Securities upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.20) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.73 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.16) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.17 |
Grand Fortune Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Grand Fortune's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Grand Fortune's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Grand Fortune historical prices to predict the future Grand Fortune's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.15) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.17) |
Grand Fortune Securities Backtested Returns
Grand Fortune Securities holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.1, which attests that the entity had a -0.1% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Grand Fortune Securities exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Grand Fortune's market risk adjusted performance of (0.16), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.25, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Grand Fortune's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Grand Fortune is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Grand Fortune Securities has a negative expected return of -0.0728%. Please make sure to check out Grand Fortune's standard deviation, jensen alpha, and the relationship between the coefficient of variation and information ratio , to decide if Grand Fortune Securities performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.71 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Grand Fortune Securities has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Grand Fortune time series from 19th of December 2023 to 16th of June 2024 and 16th of June 2024 to 13th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Grand Fortune Securities price movement. The serial correlation of -0.71 indicates that around 71.0% of current Grand Fortune price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.71 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.42 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.43 |
Grand Fortune Securities lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Grand Fortune stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Grand Fortune's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Grand Fortune returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Grand Fortune has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Grand Fortune regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Grand Fortune stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Grand Fortune stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Grand Fortune stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Grand Fortune Lagged Returns
When evaluating Grand Fortune's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Grand Fortune stock have on its future price. Grand Fortune autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Grand Fortune autocorrelation shows the relationship between Grand Fortune stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Grand Fortune Securities.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Grand Fortune
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Grand Fortune position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Grand Fortune will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Grand Stock
| 0.6 | 2881A | Fubon Financial Holding | PairCorr |
| 0.49 | 2891B | CTBC Financial Holding | PairCorr |
| 0.48 | 2891 | CTBC Financial Holding | PairCorr |
| 0.46 | 2882B | Cathay Financial Holding | PairCorr |
| 0.42 | 2820 | China Bills Finance | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Grand Fortune could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Grand Fortune when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Grand Fortune - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Grand Fortune Securities to buy it.
The correlation of Grand Fortune is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Grand Fortune moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Grand Fortune Securities moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Grand Fortune can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Grand Stock Analysis
When running Grand Fortune's price analysis, check to measure Grand Fortune's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Grand Fortune is operating at the current time. Most of Grand Fortune's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Grand Fortune's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Grand Fortune's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Grand Fortune to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.