Duzhe Publishing (China) Market Value
| 603999 Stock | 6.30 0.04 0.63% |
| Symbol | Duzhe |
Duzhe Publishing 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Duzhe Publishing's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Duzhe Publishing.
| 10/31/2024 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Duzhe Publishing on October 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Duzhe Publishing Media or generate 0.0% return on investment in Duzhe Publishing over 30 days. Duzhe Publishing is related to or competes with Cambricon Technologies, Loongson Technology, Shenzhen Fortune, Chongqing Road, Wuhan Xianglong, Empyrean Technology, and Hunan Airbluer. Duzhe Publishing is entity of China. It is traded as Stock on SHG exchange. More
Duzhe Publishing Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Duzhe Publishing's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Duzhe Publishing Media upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.99 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1103 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.18 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.61) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.8 |
Duzhe Publishing Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Duzhe Publishing's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Duzhe Publishing's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Duzhe Publishing historical prices to predict the future Duzhe Publishing's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1293 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4432 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1027 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (6.91) |
Duzhe Publishing Media Backtested Returns
Duzhe Publishing appears to be slightly risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Duzhe Publishing Media secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.18, which denotes the company had a 0.18% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By reviewing Duzhe Publishing's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.51% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize Duzhe Publishing's Downside Deviation of 2.99, coefficient of variation of 626.45, and Mean Deviation of 2.12 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Duzhe Publishing holds a performance score of 14. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.063, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Duzhe Publishing are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Duzhe Publishing is likely to outperform the market. Please check Duzhe Publishing's maximum drawdown, potential upside, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to make a quick decision on whether Duzhe Publishing's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.62 |
Good predictability
Duzhe Publishing Media has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Duzhe Publishing time series from 31st of October 2024 to 15th of November 2024 and 15th of November 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Duzhe Publishing Media price movement. The serial correlation of 0.62 indicates that roughly 62.0% of current Duzhe Publishing price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.62 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.65 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.04 |
Duzhe Publishing Media lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Duzhe Publishing stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Duzhe Publishing's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Duzhe Publishing returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Duzhe Publishing has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Duzhe Publishing regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Duzhe Publishing stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Duzhe Publishing stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Duzhe Publishing stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Duzhe Publishing Lagged Returns
When evaluating Duzhe Publishing's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Duzhe Publishing stock have on its future price. Duzhe Publishing autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Duzhe Publishing autocorrelation shows the relationship between Duzhe Publishing stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Duzhe Publishing Media.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Duzhe Stock
Duzhe Publishing financial ratios help investors to determine whether Duzhe Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Duzhe with respect to the benefits of owning Duzhe Publishing security.