ARDAGH METAL (Germany) Market Value
| 7JZ Stock | 3.64 0.16 4.60% |
| Symbol | ARDAGH |
ARDAGH METAL 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to ARDAGH METAL's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of ARDAGH METAL.
| 10/28/2024 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in ARDAGH METAL on October 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ARDAGH METAL PACDL 0001 or generate 0.0% return on investment in ARDAGH METAL over 30 days. ARDAGH METAL is related to or competes with AptarGroup, Superior Plus, NMI Holdings, Origin Agritech, SIVERS SEMICONDUCTORS, Talanx AG, and NorAm Drilling. More
ARDAGH METAL Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure ARDAGH METAL's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess ARDAGH METAL PACDL 0001 upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.76 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0799 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.71 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.10) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.1 |
ARDAGH METAL Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for ARDAGH METAL's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as ARDAGH METAL's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use ARDAGH METAL historical prices to predict the future ARDAGH METAL's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0993 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3363 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.12) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0684 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.12 |
ARDAGH METAL PACDL Backtested Returns
ARDAGH METAL appears to be unstable, given 3 months investment horizon. ARDAGH METAL PACDL secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.083, which signifies that the company had a 0.083% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for ARDAGH METAL PACDL 0001, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of ARDAGH METAL's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0993, mean deviation of 2.28, and Downside Deviation of 3.76 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, ARDAGH METAL holds a performance score of 6. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.33, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, ARDAGH METAL's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding ARDAGH METAL is expected to be smaller as well. Please check ARDAGH METAL's mean deviation, standard deviation, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the downside deviation and total risk alpha , to make a quick decision on whether ARDAGH METAL's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.40 |
Average predictability
ARDAGH METAL PACDL 0001 has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ARDAGH METAL time series from 28th of October 2024 to 12th of November 2024 and 12th of November 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ARDAGH METAL PACDL price movement. The serial correlation of 0.4 indicates that just about 40.0% of current ARDAGH METAL price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.4 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.35 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
ARDAGH METAL PACDL lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is ARDAGH METAL stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting ARDAGH METAL's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of ARDAGH METAL returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that ARDAGH METAL has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
ARDAGH METAL regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If ARDAGH METAL stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if ARDAGH METAL stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in ARDAGH METAL stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
ARDAGH METAL Lagged Returns
When evaluating ARDAGH METAL's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of ARDAGH METAL stock have on its future price. ARDAGH METAL autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, ARDAGH METAL autocorrelation shows the relationship between ARDAGH METAL stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in ARDAGH METAL PACDL 0001.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in ARDAGH Stock
ARDAGH METAL financial ratios help investors to determine whether ARDAGH Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ARDAGH with respect to the benefits of owning ARDAGH METAL security.