Ariana Resources (UK) Market Value
| AAU Stock | 2.60 0.05 1.96% |
| Symbol | Ariana |
Ariana Resources 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ariana Resources' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ariana Resources.
| 11/01/2024 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ariana Resources on November 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ariana Resources plc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ariana Resources over 30 days. Ariana Resources is related to or competes with Givaudan, Antofagasta PLC, Centamin PLC, Atalaya Mining, Ferrexpo PLC, Amaroq Minerals, and Central Asia. Ariana Resources is entity of United Kingdom More
Ariana Resources Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ariana Resources' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ariana Resources plc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.94 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1118 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 20.87 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.08) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.45 |
Ariana Resources Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ariana Resources' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ariana Resources' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ariana Resources historical prices to predict the future Ariana Resources' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1269 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5087 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0881 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.77) |
Ariana Resources plc Backtested Returns
Ariana Resources appears to be risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Ariana Resources plc secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.16, which signifies that the company had a 0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Ariana Resources' technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.5% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Ariana Resources' Mean Deviation of 2.11, downside deviation of 3.94, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1269 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Ariana Resources holds a performance score of 12. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.27, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Ariana Resources are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Ariana Resources is likely to outperform the market. Please check Ariana Resources' sortino ratio, potential upside, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and maximum drawdown , to make a quick decision on whether Ariana Resources' price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.86 |
Excellent reverse predictability
Ariana Resources plc has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ariana Resources time series from 1st of November 2024 to 16th of November 2024 and 16th of November 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ariana Resources plc price movement. The serial correlation of -0.86 indicates that approximately 86.0% of current Ariana Resources price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.86 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.72 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Ariana Resources plc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ariana Resources stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ariana Resources' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ariana Resources returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ariana Resources has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ariana Resources regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ariana Resources stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ariana Resources stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ariana Resources stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ariana Resources Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ariana Resources' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ariana Resources stock have on its future price. Ariana Resources autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ariana Resources autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ariana Resources stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ariana Resources plc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Ariana Stock
Ariana Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ariana Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ariana with respect to the benefits of owning Ariana Resources security.