Alkindo Naratama (Indonesia) Market Value
| ALDO Stock | IDR 560.00 5.00 0.90% |
| Symbol | Alkindo |
Alkindo Naratama 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Alkindo Naratama's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Alkindo Naratama.
| 10/24/2024 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Alkindo Naratama on October 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Alkindo Naratama Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Alkindo Naratama over 30 days. Alkindo Naratama is related to or competes with Kedaung Indah, Langgeng Makmur, Kabelindo Murni, Mustika Ratu, and Champion Pacific. More
Alkindo Naratama Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Alkindo Naratama's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Alkindo Naratama Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.43 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1585 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.1 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.07) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.14 |
Alkindo Naratama Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Alkindo Naratama's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Alkindo Naratama's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Alkindo Naratama historical prices to predict the future Alkindo Naratama's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1558 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.556 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1852 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1989 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.18 |
Alkindo Naratama Tbk Backtested Returns
Alkindo Naratama appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Alkindo Naratama Tbk secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.2, which signifies that the company had a 0.2% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Alkindo Naratama's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.62% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Alkindo Naratama's Mean Deviation of 2.4, downside deviation of 2.43, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1558 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Alkindo Naratama holds a performance score of 15. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.27, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Alkindo Naratama's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Alkindo Naratama is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Alkindo Naratama's downside deviation, standard deviation, total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to make a quick decision on whether Alkindo Naratama's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.55 |
Modest predictability
Alkindo Naratama Tbk has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Alkindo Naratama time series from 24th of October 2024 to 8th of November 2024 and 8th of November 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Alkindo Naratama Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.55 indicates that about 55.0% of current Alkindo Naratama price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.55 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.22 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 151.65 |
Alkindo Naratama Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Alkindo Naratama stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Alkindo Naratama's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Alkindo Naratama returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Alkindo Naratama has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Alkindo Naratama regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Alkindo Naratama stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Alkindo Naratama stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Alkindo Naratama stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Alkindo Naratama Lagged Returns
When evaluating Alkindo Naratama's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Alkindo Naratama stock have on its future price. Alkindo Naratama autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Alkindo Naratama autocorrelation shows the relationship between Alkindo Naratama stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Alkindo Naratama Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Alkindo Naratama financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alkindo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alkindo with respect to the benefits of owning Alkindo Naratama security.