Alumex PLC (Sri Lanka) Market Value
| ALUMN0000 | LKR 11.50 0.30 2.54% |
| Symbol | Alumex |
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alumex PLC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alumex PLC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alumex PLC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Alumex PLC 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Alumex PLC's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Alumex PLC.
| 12/01/2023 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Alumex PLC on December 1, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Alumex PLC or generate 0.0% return on investment in Alumex PLC over 360 days. More
Alumex PLC Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Alumex PLC's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Alumex PLC upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.81 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.75) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.45 |
Alumex PLC Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Alumex PLC's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Alumex PLC's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Alumex PLC historical prices to predict the future Alumex PLC's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0405 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0804 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.22) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.65) |
Alumex PLC Backtested Returns
At this point, Alumex PLC is somewhat reliable. Alumex PLC secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0569, which signifies that the company had a 0.0569% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Alumex PLC, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Alumex PLC's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0405, downside deviation of 2.15, and Mean Deviation of 1.45 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.11%. Alumex PLC has a performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0454, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Alumex PLC are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Alumex PLC is likely to outperform the market. Alumex PLC right now shows a risk of 1.91%. Please confirm Alumex PLC skewness, and the relationship between the value at risk and day median price , to decide if Alumex PLC will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.03 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Alumex PLC has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Alumex PLC time series from 1st of December 2023 to 29th of May 2024 and 29th of May 2024 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Alumex PLC price movement. The serial correlation of -0.03 indicates that only 3.0% of current Alumex PLC price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.03 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.16 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.13 |
Alumex PLC lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Alumex PLC stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Alumex PLC's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Alumex PLC returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Alumex PLC has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Alumex PLC regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Alumex PLC stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Alumex PLC stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Alumex PLC stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Alumex PLC Lagged Returns
When evaluating Alumex PLC's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Alumex PLC stock have on its future price. Alumex PLC autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Alumex PLC autocorrelation shows the relationship between Alumex PLC stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Alumex PLC.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Alumex PLC financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alumex Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alumex with respect to the benefits of owning Alumex PLC security.