Apna Microfinance (Pakistan) Market Value
| AMBL Stock | 10.00 0.94 8.59% |
| Symbol | Apna |
Apna Microfinance 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Apna Microfinance's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Apna Microfinance.
| 07/05/2023 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Apna Microfinance on July 5, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Apna Microfinance Bank or generate 0.0% return on investment in Apna Microfinance over 510 days.
Apna Microfinance Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Apna Microfinance's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Apna Microfinance Bank upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.24) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.75 | |||
| Value At Risk | (8.46) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.7952 |
Apna Microfinance Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Apna Microfinance's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Apna Microfinance's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Apna Microfinance historical prices to predict the future Apna Microfinance's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.15) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.74) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.19) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.22) |
Apna Microfinance Bank Backtested Returns
Apna Microfinance Bank secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.15, which signifies that the company had a -0.15% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Apna Microfinance Bank exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Apna Microfinance's Mean Deviation of 1.86, risk adjusted performance of (0.15), and Standard Deviation of 3.32 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.55, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Apna Microfinance's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Apna Microfinance is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Apna Microfinance Bank has a negative expected return of -0.28%. Please make sure to confirm Apna Microfinance's treynor ratio, value at risk, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and maximum drawdown , to decide if Apna Microfinance Bank performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -92,233,720,368,547,760 |
Near perfect reversele predictability
Apna Microfinance Bank has near perfect reversele predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Apna Microfinance time series from 5th of July 2023 to 16th of March 2024 and 16th of March 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Apna Microfinance Bank price movement. The serial correlation of -9.223372036854776E16 indicates that 9.223372036854776E16% of current Apna Microfinance price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -92233.7 T | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.5 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Apna Microfinance Bank lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Apna Microfinance stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Apna Microfinance's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Apna Microfinance returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Apna Microfinance has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Apna Microfinance regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Apna Microfinance stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Apna Microfinance stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Apna Microfinance stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Apna Microfinance Lagged Returns
When evaluating Apna Microfinance's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Apna Microfinance stock have on its future price. Apna Microfinance autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Apna Microfinance autocorrelation shows the relationship between Apna Microfinance stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Apna Microfinance Bank.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Apna Microfinance
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Apna Microfinance position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Apna Microfinance will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Apna Microfinance could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Apna Microfinance when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Apna Microfinance - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Apna Microfinance Bank to buy it.
The correlation of Apna Microfinance is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Apna Microfinance moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Apna Microfinance Bank moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Apna Microfinance can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.