Amazon (Chile) Market Value
| AMZN Stock | USD 218.98 6.22 2.76% |
| Symbol | Amazon |
Amazon 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Amazon's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Amazon.
| 12/22/2022 |
| 12/11/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Amazon on December 22, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Amazon Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Amazon over 720 days. Amazon is related to or competes with Banco De, Multiexport Foods, and LATAM Airlines. Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions in North America and internationally More
Amazon Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Amazon's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Amazon Inc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.66 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0752 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.9 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.90) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.53 |
Amazon Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Amazon's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Amazon's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Amazon historical prices to predict the future Amazon's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0921 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5125 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.13) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0611 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.22) |
Amazon Inc Backtested Returns
Amazon is very steady given 3 months investment horizon. Amazon Inc secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.33, which signifies that the company had a 0.33% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We were able to interpolate twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 1.24% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use Amazon risk adjusted performance of 0.0921, and Mean Deviation of 2.0 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. Amazon holds a performance score of 26 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -1.52, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Amazon are expected to decrease by larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoil, Amazon is expected to outperform it. Use Amazon semi deviation, coefficient of variation, and the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to analyze future returns on Amazon.
Auto-correlation | 0.58 |
Modest predictability
Amazon Inc has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Amazon time series from 22nd of December 2022 to 17th of December 2023 and 17th of December 2023 to 11th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Amazon Inc price movement. The serial correlation of 0.58 indicates that roughly 58.0% of current Amazon price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.58 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.61 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 299.04 |
Amazon Inc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Amazon stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Amazon's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Amazon returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Amazon has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Amazon regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Amazon stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Amazon stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Amazon stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Amazon Lagged Returns
When evaluating Amazon's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Amazon stock have on its future price. Amazon autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Amazon autocorrelation shows the relationship between Amazon stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Amazon Inc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Amazon
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Amazon position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Amazon will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Amazon Stock
Moving against Amazon Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Amazon could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Amazon when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Amazon - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Amazon Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Amazon is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Amazon moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Amazon Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Amazon can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Amazon Stock
When determining whether Amazon Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Amazon's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Amazon Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Amazon Inc Stock:Check out Amazon Correlation, Amazon Volatility and Amazon Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Amazon. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Amazon technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.