American Century Ultra Fund Market Value
| AULNX Fund | USD 106.45 0.04 0.04% |
| Symbol | American |
American Century 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American Century's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American Century.
| 12/07/2022 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in American Century on December 7, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American Century Ultra or generate 0.0% return on investment in American Century over 720 days. American Century is related to or competes with International Growth, Heritage Fund, and Janus Global. The fund normally invests in stocks of companies that the adviser believes will increase in value over time More
American Century Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American Century's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American Century Ultra upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.15 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.21) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.7 |
American Century Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American Century's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American Century's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American Century historical prices to predict the future American Century's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0841 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1136 |
American Century Ultra Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider American Mutual Fund to be very steady. American Century Ultra secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.11, which signifies that the fund had a 0.11% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for American Century Ultra, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm American Century's risk adjusted performance of 0.0841, and Mean Deviation of 0.7736 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.12%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.93, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. American Century returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, American Century is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | 0.88 |
Very good predictability
American Century Ultra has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American Century time series from 7th of December 2022 to 2nd of December 2023 and 2nd of December 2023 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American Century Ultra price movement. The serial correlation of 0.88 indicates that approximately 88.0% of current American Century price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.88 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.83 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 51.82 |
American Century Ultra lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is American Century mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American Century's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American Century returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American Century has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
American Century regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American Century mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American Century mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American Century mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
American Century Lagged Returns
When evaluating American Century's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American Century mutual fund have on its future price. American Century autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American Century autocorrelation shows the relationship between American Century mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American Century Ultra.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in American Mutual Fund
American Century financial ratios help investors to determine whether American Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in American with respect to the benefits of owning American Century security.
| Global Correlations Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum |