Aura Minerals (Brazil) Market Value
| AURA33 Stock | BRL 23.80 0.73 2.98% |
| Symbol | Aura |
Aura Minerals 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Aura Minerals' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Aura Minerals.
| 10/27/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Aura Minerals on October 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Aura Minerals or generate 0.0% return on investment in Aura Minerals over 30 days. Aura Minerals is related to or competes with Ambipar Participaes, BrasilAgro Companhia, Mliuz SA, and Irani Papel. Aura Minerals Inc., a gold and copper production company, focuses on the development and operation of gold and base meta... More
Aura Minerals Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Aura Minerals' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Aura Minerals upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.46 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1054 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.01 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.65) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.22 |
Aura Minerals Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Aura Minerals' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Aura Minerals' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Aura Minerals historical prices to predict the future Aura Minerals' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.125 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4312 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1162 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.01) |
Aura Minerals Backtested Returns
Aura Minerals appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Aura Minerals secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.19, which signifies that the company had a 0.19% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Aura Minerals' technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.51% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Aura Minerals' Mean Deviation of 2.08, risk adjusted performance of 0.125, and Downside Deviation of 2.46 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Aura Minerals holds a performance score of 14. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.2, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Aura Minerals are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Aura Minerals is likely to outperform the market. Please check Aura Minerals' jensen alpha, sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and treynor ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Aura Minerals' price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.72 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Aura Minerals has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Aura Minerals time series from 27th of October 2024 to 11th of November 2024 and 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Aura Minerals price movement. The serial correlation of -0.72 indicates that around 72.0% of current Aura Minerals price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.72 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.53 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.48 |
Aura Minerals lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Aura Minerals stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Aura Minerals' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Aura Minerals returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Aura Minerals has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Aura Minerals regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Aura Minerals stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Aura Minerals stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Aura Minerals stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Aura Minerals Lagged Returns
When evaluating Aura Minerals' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Aura Minerals stock have on its future price. Aura Minerals autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Aura Minerals autocorrelation shows the relationship between Aura Minerals stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Aura Minerals.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Aura Stock
Aura Minerals financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aura Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aura with respect to the benefits of owning Aura Minerals security.