Axsome Therapeutics Stock Market Value
| AXSM Stock | USD 98.19 3.59 3.79% |
| Symbol | Axsome |
Is Pharmaceutical Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Axsome Therapeutics. If investors know Axsome will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Axsome Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Axsome Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Axsome that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Axsome Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Axsome Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Axsome Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Axsome Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Axsome Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Axsome Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Axsome Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Axsome Therapeutics 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Axsome Therapeutics' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Axsome Therapeutics.
| 10/23/2024 |
| 11/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Axsome Therapeutics on October 23, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Axsome Therapeutics or generate 0.0% return on investment in Axsome Therapeutics over 30 days. Axsome Therapeutics is related to or competes with Incyte, Sarepta Therapeutics, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, Viking Therapeutics, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Seres Therapeutics, and TG Therapeutics. Axsome Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development of novel therapies for central nervou... More
Axsome Therapeutics Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Axsome Therapeutics' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Axsome Therapeutics upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0333 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.67 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.78) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.1 |
Axsome Therapeutics Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Axsome Therapeutics' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Axsome Therapeutics' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Axsome Therapeutics historical prices to predict the future Axsome Therapeutics' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.066 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2034 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.14) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0404 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.85) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Axsome Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Axsome Therapeutics Backtested Returns
As of now, Axsome Stock is very steady. Axsome Therapeutics secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0775, which signifies that the company had a 0.0775% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Axsome Therapeutics, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Axsome Therapeutics' Mean Deviation of 1.75, downside deviation of 2.04, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.066 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.19%. Axsome Therapeutics has a performance score of 6 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.21, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Axsome Therapeutics are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Axsome Therapeutics is likely to outperform the market. Axsome Therapeutics right now shows a risk of 2.48%. Please confirm Axsome Therapeutics expected short fall, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and rate of daily change , to decide if Axsome Therapeutics will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.11 |
Insignificant predictability
Axsome Therapeutics has insignificant predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Axsome Therapeutics time series from 23rd of October 2024 to 7th of November 2024 and 7th of November 2024 to 22nd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Axsome Therapeutics price movement. The serial correlation of 0.11 indicates that less than 11.0% of current Axsome Therapeutics price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.11 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.47 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 10.26 |
Axsome Therapeutics lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Axsome Therapeutics stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Axsome Therapeutics' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Axsome Therapeutics returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Axsome Therapeutics has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
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Axsome Therapeutics regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Axsome Therapeutics stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Axsome Therapeutics stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Axsome Therapeutics stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
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Axsome Therapeutics Lagged Returns
When evaluating Axsome Therapeutics' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Axsome Therapeutics stock have on its future price. Axsome Therapeutics autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Axsome Therapeutics autocorrelation shows the relationship between Axsome Therapeutics stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Axsome Therapeutics.
Regressed Prices |
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Axsome Therapeutics technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.