Aygaz AS (Turkey) Market Value
| AYGAZ Stock | TRY 182.80 4.80 2.70% |
| Symbol | Aygaz |
Aygaz AS 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Aygaz AS's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Aygaz AS.
| 07/05/2023 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Aygaz AS on July 5, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Aygaz AS or generate 0.0% return on investment in Aygaz AS over 510 days. Aygaz AS is related to or competes with Aksa Akrilik, Turkiye Sise, Hektas Ticaret, SASA Polyester, and Alarko Holding. Aygaz Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, purchases and sells liquid petroleum gas to retailers for distribu... More
Aygaz AS Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Aygaz AS's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Aygaz AS upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1064 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.27 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.17) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.1 |
Aygaz AS Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Aygaz AS's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Aygaz AS's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Aygaz AS historical prices to predict the future Aygaz AS's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1414 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2511 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0302 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1394 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.6158 |
Aygaz AS Backtested Returns
Aygaz AS appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Aygaz AS secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.2, which signifies that the company had a 0.2% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Aygaz AS, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Aygaz AS's risk adjusted performance of 0.1414, and Mean Deviation of 1.43 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Aygaz AS holds a performance score of 15. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.51, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Aygaz AS's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Aygaz AS is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Aygaz AS's value at risk, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and skewness , to make a quick decision on whether Aygaz AS's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.03 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Aygaz AS has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Aygaz AS time series from 5th of July 2023 to 16th of March 2024 and 16th of March 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Aygaz AS price movement. The serial correlation of -0.03 indicates that only 3.0% of current Aygaz AS price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.03 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.11 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 325.33 |
Aygaz AS lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Aygaz AS stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Aygaz AS's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Aygaz AS returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Aygaz AS has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Aygaz AS regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Aygaz AS stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Aygaz AS stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Aygaz AS stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Aygaz AS Lagged Returns
When evaluating Aygaz AS's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Aygaz AS stock have on its future price. Aygaz AS autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Aygaz AS autocorrelation shows the relationship between Aygaz AS stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Aygaz AS.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Other Information on Investing in Aygaz Stock
Aygaz AS financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aygaz Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aygaz with respect to the benefits of owning Aygaz AS security.