High Yield Municipal Fund Market Value
| AYMCX Fund | USD 9.03 0.02 0.22% |
| Symbol | High-yield |
High-yield Municipal 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to High-yield Municipal's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of High-yield Municipal.
| 06/04/2024 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in High-yield Municipal on June 4, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding High Yield Municipal Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in High-yield Municipal over 180 days. High-yield Municipal is related to or competes with The Gabelli, The Gabelli, Sarofim Equity, Huber Capital, Cutler Equity, Artisan Select, and Scharf Fund. The fund invests in municipal and other debt securities with an emphasis on high-yield securities More
High-yield Municipal Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure High-yield Municipal's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess High Yield Municipal Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.498 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.42) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.68 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.34) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.3352 |
High-yield Municipal Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for High-yield Municipal's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as High-yield Municipal's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use High-yield Municipal historical prices to predict the future High-yield Municipal's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0494 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0265 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.23) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.14) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of High-yield Municipal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
High Yield Municipal Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider High-yield Mutual Fund to be very steady. High Yield Municipal holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0772, which attests that the entity had a 0.0772% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for High Yield Municipal, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please check out High-yield Municipal's Downside Deviation of 0.498, risk adjusted performance of 0.0494, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.13) to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0213%. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.0976, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning High-yield Municipal are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, High-yield Municipal is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.34 |
Poor reverse predictability
High Yield Municipal Fund has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between High-yield Municipal time series from 4th of June 2024 to 2nd of September 2024 and 2nd of September 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of High Yield Municipal price movement. The serial correlation of -0.34 indicates that nearly 34.0% of current High-yield Municipal price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.34 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.15 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
High Yield Municipal lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is High-yield Municipal mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting High-yield Municipal's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of High-yield Municipal returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that High-yield Municipal has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
High-yield Municipal regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If High-yield Municipal mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if High-yield Municipal mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in High-yield Municipal mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
High-yield Municipal Lagged Returns
When evaluating High-yield Municipal's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of High-yield Municipal mutual fund have on its future price. High-yield Municipal autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, High-yield Municipal autocorrelation shows the relationship between High-yield Municipal mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in High Yield Municipal Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in High-yield Mutual Fund
High-yield Municipal financial ratios help investors to determine whether High-yield Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in High-yield with respect to the benefits of owning High-yield Municipal security.
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