BRITISH AMERICAN (Zimbabwe) Market Value
| BAT Stock | 9,900 297.06 3.09% |
| Symbol | BRITISH |
BRITISH AMERICAN 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to BRITISH AMERICAN's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of BRITISH AMERICAN.
| 08/05/2024 |
| 02/01/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in BRITISH AMERICAN on August 5, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO or generate 0.0% return on investment in BRITISH AMERICAN over 180 days.
BRITISH AMERICAN Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure BRITISH AMERICAN's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 9.11 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0965 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 29.79 | |||
| Value At Risk | (14.99) | |||
| Potential Upside | 14.29 |
BRITISH AMERICAN Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for BRITISH AMERICAN's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as BRITISH AMERICAN's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use BRITISH AMERICAN historical prices to predict the future BRITISH AMERICAN's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1016 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6709 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0141 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0721 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.8852 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BRITISH AMERICAN's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO Backtested Returns
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0186, which signifies that the company had a -0.0186 % return per unit of return volatility over the last 3 months. BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO exposes twenty-seven different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm BRITISH AMERICAN's Semi Deviation of 5.13, risk adjusted performance of 0.1016, and Mean Deviation of 4.2 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.84, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, BRITISH AMERICAN's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding BRITISH AMERICAN is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO has a negative expected return of -0.12%. Please make sure to confirm BRITISH AMERICAN's jensen alpha, semi variance, price action indicator, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and daily balance of power , to decide if BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO performance from the past will be repeated in the future.
Auto-correlation | -0.62 |
Very good reverse predictability
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between BRITISH AMERICAN time series from 5th of August 2024 to 3rd of November 2024 and 3rd of November 2024 to 1st of February 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO price movement. The serial correlation of -0.62 indicates that roughly 62.0% of current BRITISH AMERICAN price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.62 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.21 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.5 M |
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is BRITISH AMERICAN stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting BRITISH AMERICAN's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of BRITISH AMERICAN returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that BRITISH AMERICAN has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
BRITISH AMERICAN regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If BRITISH AMERICAN stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if BRITISH AMERICAN stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in BRITISH AMERICAN stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
BRITISH AMERICAN Lagged Returns
When evaluating BRITISH AMERICAN's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of BRITISH AMERICAN stock have on its future price. BRITISH AMERICAN autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, BRITISH AMERICAN autocorrelation shows the relationship between BRITISH AMERICAN stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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