Big Bird (Pakistan) Market Value
| BBFL Stock | 62.74 0.91 1.47% |
| Symbol | Big |
Big Bird 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Big Bird's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Big Bird.
| 10/27/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Big Bird on October 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Big Bird Foods or generate 0.0% return on investment in Big Bird over 30 days.
Big Bird Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Big Bird's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Big Bird Foods upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.11) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 16.5 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.11) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.51 |
Big Bird Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Big Bird's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Big Bird's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Big Bird historical prices to predict the future Big Bird's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.05) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.25) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.73) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.87) |
Big Bird Foods Backtested Returns
Big Bird Foods secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0619, which signifies that the company had a -0.0619% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Big Bird Foods exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Big Bird's mean deviation of 2.51, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.05) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.13, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Big Bird's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Big Bird is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Big Bird Foods has a negative expected return of -0.19%. Please make sure to confirm Big Bird's jensen alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to decide if Big Bird Foods performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.2 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
Big Bird Foods has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Big Bird time series from 27th of October 2024 to 11th of November 2024 and 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Big Bird Foods price movement. The serial correlation of -0.2 indicates that over 20.0% of current Big Bird price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.2 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.08 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 5.38 |
Big Bird Foods lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Big Bird stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Big Bird's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Big Bird returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Big Bird has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Big Bird regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Big Bird stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Big Bird stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Big Bird stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Big Bird Lagged Returns
When evaluating Big Bird's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Big Bird stock have on its future price. Big Bird autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Big Bird autocorrelation shows the relationship between Big Bird stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Big Bird Foods.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Big Bird
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Big Bird position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Big Bird will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Big Bird could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Big Bird when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Big Bird - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Big Bird Foods to buy it.
The correlation of Big Bird is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Big Bird moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Big Bird Foods moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Big Bird can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.