Bolan Casting (Pakistan) Market Value
| BCL Stock | 87.45 0.59 0.67% |
| Symbol | Bolan |
Bolan Casting 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Bolan Casting's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Bolan Casting.
| 02/29/2024 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Bolan Casting on February 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Bolan Casting or generate 0.0% return on investment in Bolan Casting over 270 days. Bolan Casting is related to or competes with NetSol Technologies, Soneri Bank, Security Investment, Bank of Punjab, and Jubilee Life. More
Bolan Casting Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Bolan Casting's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Bolan Casting upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.10) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.26 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.07) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.02 |
Bolan Casting Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Bolan Casting's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Bolan Casting's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Bolan Casting historical prices to predict the future Bolan Casting's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.32) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.84) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.53) |
Bolan Casting Backtested Returns
Currently, Bolan Casting is very steady. Bolan Casting secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0527, which signifies that the company had a 0.0527% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-four technical indicators for Bolan Casting, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Bolan Casting's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.04), standard deviation of 3.66, and Mean Deviation of 2.72 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.17%. Bolan Casting has a performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.5, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Bolan Casting's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Bolan Casting is expected to be smaller as well. Bolan Casting right now shows a risk of 3.26%. Please confirm Bolan Casting potential upside, daily balance of power, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and kurtosis , to decide if Bolan Casting will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.82 |
Excellent reverse predictability
Bolan Casting has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Bolan Casting time series from 29th of February 2024 to 13th of July 2024 and 13th of July 2024 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Bolan Casting price movement. The serial correlation of -0.82 indicates that around 82.0% of current Bolan Casting price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.82 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.11 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 318.54 |
Bolan Casting lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Bolan Casting stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Bolan Casting's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Bolan Casting returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Bolan Casting has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Bolan Casting regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Bolan Casting stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Bolan Casting stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Bolan Casting stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Bolan Casting Lagged Returns
When evaluating Bolan Casting's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Bolan Casting stock have on its future price. Bolan Casting autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Bolan Casting autocorrelation shows the relationship between Bolan Casting stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Bolan Casting.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Bolan Casting
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bolan Casting position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bolan Casting will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Bolan Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bolan Casting could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bolan Casting when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bolan Casting - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bolan Casting to buy it.
The correlation of Bolan Casting is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bolan Casting moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bolan Casting moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bolan Casting can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Bolan Stock Analysis
When running Bolan Casting's price analysis, check to measure Bolan Casting's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bolan Casting is operating at the current time. Most of Bolan Casting's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bolan Casting's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bolan Casting's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bolan Casting to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.