Caterpillar (Germany) Market Value
| CAT1 Stock | 388.00 4.00 1.04% |
| Symbol | Caterpillar |
Caterpillar 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Caterpillar's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Caterpillar.
| 10/30/2024 |
| 11/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Caterpillar on October 30, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Caterpillar or generate 0.0% return on investment in Caterpillar over 30 days. Caterpillar is related to or competes with Deere, AB Volvo, Daimler Truck, Metso Outotec, and Traton SE. More
Caterpillar Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Caterpillar's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Caterpillar upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1014 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.66 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.04) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.9 |
Caterpillar Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Caterpillar's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Caterpillar's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Caterpillar historical prices to predict the future Caterpillar's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1329 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2917 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0191 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1344 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.63 |
Caterpillar Backtested Returns
Caterpillar appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Caterpillar secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.16, which signifies that the company had a 0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Caterpillar, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Caterpillar's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1329, downside deviation of 1.48, and Mean Deviation of 1.43 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Caterpillar holds a performance score of 12. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.19, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Caterpillar's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Caterpillar is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Caterpillar's total risk alpha, treynor ratio, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to make a quick decision on whether Caterpillar's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.64 |
Good predictability
Caterpillar has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Caterpillar time series from 30th of October 2024 to 14th of November 2024 and 14th of November 2024 to 29th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Caterpillar price movement. The serial correlation of 0.64 indicates that roughly 64.0% of current Caterpillar price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.64 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.62 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 110.27 |
Caterpillar lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Caterpillar stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Caterpillar's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Caterpillar returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Caterpillar has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Caterpillar regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Caterpillar stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Caterpillar stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Caterpillar stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Caterpillar Lagged Returns
When evaluating Caterpillar's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Caterpillar stock have on its future price. Caterpillar autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Caterpillar autocorrelation shows the relationship between Caterpillar stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Caterpillar.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Caterpillar Stock
When determining whether Caterpillar is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Caterpillar Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Caterpillar Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Caterpillar Stock:Check out Caterpillar Correlation, Caterpillar Volatility and Caterpillar Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Caterpillar. For information on how to trade Caterpillar Stock refer to our How to Trade Caterpillar Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Caterpillar technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.