Canadian Natural Resources Stock Market Value
| CNQ Stock | CAD 48.71 0.41 0.85% |
| Symbol | Canadian |
Canadian Natural Res Price To Book Ratio
Canadian Natural 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Canadian Natural's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Canadian Natural.
| 05/27/2024 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Canadian Natural on May 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Canadian Natural Resources or generate 0.0% return on investment in Canadian Natural over 180 days. Canadian Natural is related to or competes with Suncor Energy, Cenovus Energy, TC Energy, Enbridge, and Pembina Pipeline. Canadian Natural Resources Limited explores for, develops, produces, and markets crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas... More
Canadian Natural Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Canadian Natural's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Canadian Natural Resources upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.2 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.28) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.49 |
Canadian Natural Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Canadian Natural's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Canadian Natural's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Canadian Natural historical prices to predict the future Canadian Natural's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0155 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.22) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0295 |
Canadian Natural Res Backtested Returns
Canadian Natural Res secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0119, which signifies that the company had a -0.0119% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Canadian Natural Resources exposes twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Canadian Natural's Mean Deviation of 1.35, risk adjusted performance of 0.0155, and Downside Deviation of 1.88 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.44, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Canadian Natural's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Canadian Natural is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Canadian Natural Res has a negative expected return of -0.0212%. Please make sure to confirm Canadian Natural's sortino ratio, skewness, period momentum indicator, as well as the relationship between the potential upside and rate of daily change , to decide if Canadian Natural Res performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.39 |
Below average predictability
Canadian Natural Resources has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Canadian Natural time series from 27th of May 2024 to 25th of August 2024 and 25th of August 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Canadian Natural Res price movement. The serial correlation of 0.39 indicates that just about 39.0% of current Canadian Natural price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.39 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.09 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.94 |
Canadian Natural Res lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Canadian Natural stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Canadian Natural's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Canadian Natural returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Canadian Natural has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Canadian Natural regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Canadian Natural stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Canadian Natural stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Canadian Natural stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Canadian Natural Lagged Returns
When evaluating Canadian Natural's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Canadian Natural stock have on its future price. Canadian Natural autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Canadian Natural autocorrelation shows the relationship between Canadian Natural stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Canadian Natural Resources.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Canadian Natural
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Canadian Natural position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Canadian Natural will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Canadian Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Canadian Natural could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Canadian Natural when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Canadian Natural - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Canadian Natural Resources to buy it.
The correlation of Canadian Natural is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Canadian Natural moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Canadian Natural Res moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Canadian Natural can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Canadian Natural Correlation, Canadian Natural Volatility and Canadian Natural Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Canadian Natural. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Canadian Natural technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.