ConocoPhillips (Mexico) Market Value
| COP Stock | MXN 2,097 23.00 1.08% |
| Symbol | ConocoPhillips |
ConocoPhillips 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to ConocoPhillips' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of ConocoPhillips.
| 07/20/2023 |
| 12/11/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in ConocoPhillips on July 20, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ConocoPhillips or generate 0.0% return on investment in ConocoPhillips over 510 days. ConocoPhillips is related to or competes with Delta Air, Verizon Communications, Bank of Nova Scotia, McEwen Mining, Grupo Hotelero, Capital One, and Ameriprise Financial. ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas , ... More
ConocoPhillips Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure ConocoPhillips' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess ConocoPhillips upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.65 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.29 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.62) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.09 |
ConocoPhillips Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for ConocoPhillips' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as ConocoPhillips' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use ConocoPhillips historical prices to predict the future ConocoPhillips' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0116 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.35) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.011 |
ConocoPhillips Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider ConocoPhillips Stock to be very steady. ConocoPhillips secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0338, which signifies that the company had a 0.0338% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for ConocoPhillips, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm ConocoPhillips' Mean Deviation of 0.9591, downside deviation of 4.65, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0116 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0765%. ConocoPhillips has a performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.46, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, ConocoPhillips' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding ConocoPhillips is expected to be smaller as well. ConocoPhillips right now shows a risk of 2.26%. Please confirm ConocoPhillips downside variance, rate of daily change, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and skewness , to decide if ConocoPhillips will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.33 |
Poor reverse predictability
ConocoPhillips has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ConocoPhillips time series from 20th of July 2023 to 31st of March 2024 and 31st of March 2024 to 11th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ConocoPhillips price movement. The serial correlation of -0.33 indicates that nearly 33.0% of current ConocoPhillips price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.33 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.01 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 10.2 K |
ConocoPhillips lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is ConocoPhillips stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting ConocoPhillips' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of ConocoPhillips returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that ConocoPhillips has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
ConocoPhillips regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If ConocoPhillips stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if ConocoPhillips stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in ConocoPhillips stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
ConocoPhillips Lagged Returns
When evaluating ConocoPhillips' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of ConocoPhillips stock have on its future price. ConocoPhillips autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, ConocoPhillips autocorrelation shows the relationship between ConocoPhillips stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in ConocoPhillips.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for ConocoPhillips Stock Analysis
When running ConocoPhillips' price analysis, check to measure ConocoPhillips' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ConocoPhillips is operating at the current time. Most of ConocoPhillips' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ConocoPhillips' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ConocoPhillips' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ConocoPhillips to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.