PT Citra (Indonesia) Market Value
| CTBN Stock | IDR 2,490 350.00 16.36% |
| Symbol | CTBN |
PT Citra 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to PT Citra's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of PT Citra.
| 12/06/2022 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in PT Citra on December 6, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding PT Citra Tubindo or generate 0.0% return on investment in PT Citra over 720 days. PT Citra is related to or competes with Betonjaya Manunggal, Duta Pertiwi, Argha Karya, Alumindo Light, and Berlina Tbk. PT Citra Tubindo Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, provides pipes and accessories, and related services in Indonesia More
PT Citra Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure PT Citra's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess PT Citra Tubindo upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 6.2 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0907 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 19.63 | |||
| Value At Risk | (8.89) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.61 |
PT Citra Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for PT Citra's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as PT Citra's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use PT Citra historical prices to predict the future PT Citra's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0955 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5494 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.27) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0849 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.7989 |
PT Citra Tubindo Backtested Returns
PT Citra appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. PT Citra Tubindo retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0885, which implies the firm had a 0.0885% return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. By inspecting PT Citra's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.52% is justified by implied risk. Please evaluate PT Citra's standard deviation of 5.81, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.8089 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, PT Citra holds a performance score of 6. The company owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.81, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, PT Citra's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding PT Citra is expected to be smaller as well. Please check PT Citra's market risk adjusted performance, semi deviation, coefficient of variation, as well as the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to make a quick decision on whether PT Citra's current price history will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.37 |
Poor reverse predictability
PT Citra Tubindo has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between PT Citra time series from 6th of December 2022 to 1st of December 2023 and 1st of December 2023 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of PT Citra Tubindo price movement. The serial correlation of -0.37 indicates that just about 37.0% of current PT Citra price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.37 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.09 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 224.5 K |
PT Citra Tubindo lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is PT Citra stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting PT Citra's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of PT Citra returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that PT Citra has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
PT Citra regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If PT Citra stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if PT Citra stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in PT Citra stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
PT Citra Lagged Returns
When evaluating PT Citra's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of PT Citra stock have on its future price. PT Citra autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, PT Citra autocorrelation shows the relationship between PT Citra stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in PT Citra Tubindo.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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PT Citra financial ratios help investors to determine whether CTBN Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in CTBN with respect to the benefits of owning PT Citra security.