Citic Ltd Adr Stock Market Value
| CTPCY Stock | USD 6.07 0.28 4.84% |
| Symbol | Citic |
Citic 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Citic's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Citic.
| 10/24/2024 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Citic on October 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Citic Ltd ADR or generate 0.0% return on investment in Citic over 30 days. Citic is related to or competes with Honeywell International, MDU Resources, Compass Diversified, and Valmont Industries. CITIC Limited operates in the financial services, manufacturing, engineering contracting, advances materials, consumptio... More
Citic Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Citic's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Citic Ltd ADR upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.12 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1002 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 25.89 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.90) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.13 |
Citic Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Citic's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Citic's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Citic historical prices to predict the future Citic's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1126 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5042 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0876 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.58) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Citic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Citic Ltd ADR Backtested Returns
Citic appears to be moderately volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Citic Ltd ADR secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.14, which signifies that the company had a 0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Citic's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.53% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Citic's Mean Deviation of 1.99, risk adjusted performance of 0.1126, and Downside Deviation of 4.12 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Citic holds a performance score of 11. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.19, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Citic are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Citic is likely to outperform the market. Please check Citic's potential upside, as well as the relationship between the daily balance of power and relative strength index , to make a quick decision on whether Citic's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.57 |
Modest predictability
Citic Ltd ADR has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Citic time series from 24th of October 2024 to 8th of November 2024 and 8th of November 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Citic Ltd ADR price movement. The serial correlation of 0.57 indicates that roughly 57.0% of current Citic price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.57 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.25 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Citic Ltd ADR lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Citic pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Citic's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Citic returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Citic has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Citic regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Citic pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Citic pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Citic pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Citic Lagged Returns
When evaluating Citic's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Citic pink sheet have on its future price. Citic autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Citic autocorrelation shows the relationship between Citic pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Citic Ltd ADR.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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When running Citic's price analysis, check to measure Citic's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Citic is operating at the current time. Most of Citic's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Citic's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Citic's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Citic to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.