DCB MERCIAL (Tanzania) Market Value
| DCB Stock | 155.00 5.00 3.12% |
| Symbol | DCB |
DCB MERCIAL 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to DCB MERCIAL's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of DCB MERCIAL.
| 09/02/2024 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in DCB MERCIAL on September 2, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding DCB MERCIAL BANK or generate 0.0% return on investment in DCB MERCIAL over 90 days.
DCB MERCIAL Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure DCB MERCIAL's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess DCB MERCIAL BANK upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.41 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0725 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.26 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.12) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.7 |
DCB MERCIAL Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for DCB MERCIAL's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as DCB MERCIAL's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use DCB MERCIAL historical prices to predict the future DCB MERCIAL's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1126 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2888 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.044 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (3.14) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of DCB MERCIAL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
DCB MERCIAL BANK Backtested Returns
DCB MERCIAL appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. DCB MERCIAL BANK retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.13, which denotes the company had a 0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for DCB MERCIAL, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please utilize DCB MERCIAL's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (3.13), downside deviation of 3.41, and Coefficient Of Variation of 719.47 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, DCB MERCIAL holds a performance score of 10. The firm owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of -0.0885, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning DCB MERCIAL are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, DCB MERCIAL is likely to outperform the market. Please check DCB MERCIAL's market risk adjusted performance, semi deviation, coefficient of variation, as well as the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to make a quick decision on whether DCB MERCIAL's current price history will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.26 |
Weak reverse predictability
DCB MERCIAL BANK has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between DCB MERCIAL time series from 2nd of September 2024 to 17th of October 2024 and 17th of October 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of DCB MERCIAL BANK price movement. The serial correlation of -0.26 indicates that nearly 26.0% of current DCB MERCIAL price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.26 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.16 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 12.5 |
DCB MERCIAL BANK lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is DCB MERCIAL stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting DCB MERCIAL's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of DCB MERCIAL returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that DCB MERCIAL has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
DCB MERCIAL regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If DCB MERCIAL stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if DCB MERCIAL stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in DCB MERCIAL stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
DCB MERCIAL Lagged Returns
When evaluating DCB MERCIAL's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of DCB MERCIAL stock have on its future price. DCB MERCIAL autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, DCB MERCIAL autocorrelation shows the relationship between DCB MERCIAL stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in DCB MERCIAL BANK.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |