Elpitiya Plantations (Sri Lanka) Market Value
| ELPLN0000 | LKR 109.00 0.50 0.46% |
| Symbol | Elpitiya |
Please note, there is a significant difference between Elpitiya Plantations' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Elpitiya Plantations is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Elpitiya Plantations' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Elpitiya Plantations 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Elpitiya Plantations' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Elpitiya Plantations.
| 08/31/2024 |
| 11/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Elpitiya Plantations on August 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Elpitiya Plantations PLC or generate 0.0% return on investment in Elpitiya Plantations over 90 days. More
Elpitiya Plantations Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Elpitiya Plantations' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Elpitiya Plantations PLC upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.106 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.92 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.41) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.5 |
Elpitiya Plantations Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Elpitiya Plantations' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Elpitiya Plantations' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Elpitiya Plantations historical prices to predict the future Elpitiya Plantations' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1405 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3177 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0355 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1168 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.91) |
Elpitiya Plantations PLC Backtested Returns
Elpitiya Plantations appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Elpitiya Plantations PLC secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.18, which denotes the company had a 0.18% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Elpitiya Plantations PLC, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize Elpitiya Plantations' Coefficient Of Variation of 568.4, mean deviation of 1.44, and Downside Deviation of 1.63 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Elpitiya Plantations holds a performance score of 14. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.1, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Elpitiya Plantations are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Elpitiya Plantations is likely to outperform the market. Please check Elpitiya Plantations' expected short fall, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether Elpitiya Plantations' price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.54 |
Modest predictability
Elpitiya Plantations PLC has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Elpitiya Plantations time series from 31st of August 2024 to 15th of October 2024 and 15th of October 2024 to 29th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Elpitiya Plantations PLC price movement. The serial correlation of 0.54 indicates that about 54.0% of current Elpitiya Plantations price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.54 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.41 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 5.73 |
Elpitiya Plantations PLC lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Elpitiya Plantations stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Elpitiya Plantations' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Elpitiya Plantations returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Elpitiya Plantations has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Elpitiya Plantations regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Elpitiya Plantations stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Elpitiya Plantations stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Elpitiya Plantations stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Elpitiya Plantations Lagged Returns
When evaluating Elpitiya Plantations' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Elpitiya Plantations stock have on its future price. Elpitiya Plantations autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Elpitiya Plantations autocorrelation shows the relationship between Elpitiya Plantations stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Elpitiya Plantations PLC.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Elpitiya Plantations financial ratios help investors to determine whether Elpitiya Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Elpitiya with respect to the benefits of owning Elpitiya Plantations security.