Surya Esa (Indonesia) Market Value
| ESSA Stock | IDR 835.00 20.00 2.34% |
| Symbol | Surya |
Surya Esa 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Surya Esa's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Surya Esa.
| 12/03/2022 |
| 11/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Surya Esa on December 3, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Surya Esa Perkasa or generate 0.0% return on investment in Surya Esa over 720 days. Surya Esa is related to or competes with Harum Energy, Delta Dunia, Adi Sarana, Elang Mahkota, and Erajaya Swasembada. More
Surya Esa Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Surya Esa's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Surya Esa Perkasa upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.77 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0045 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.92 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.55) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.23 |
Surya Esa Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Surya Esa's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Surya Esa's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Surya Esa historical prices to predict the future Surya Esa's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0403 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1541 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.26) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0046 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.27) |
Surya Esa Perkasa Backtested Returns
As of now, Surya Stock is very steady. Surya Esa Perkasa owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0375, which indicates the firm had a 0.0375% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Surya Esa Perkasa, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate Surya Esa's Semi Deviation of 2.34, risk adjusted performance of 0.0403, and Coefficient Of Variation of 2308.21 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.1%. Surya Esa has a performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of -0.42, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Surya Esa are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Surya Esa is likely to outperform the market. Surya Esa Perkasa right now has a risk of 2.77%. Please validate Surya Esa jensen alpha, sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and treynor ratio , to decide if Surya Esa will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.78 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Surya Esa Perkasa has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Surya Esa time series from 3rd of December 2022 to 28th of November 2023 and 28th of November 2023 to 22nd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Surya Esa Perkasa price movement. The serial correlation of -0.78 indicates that around 78.0% of current Surya Esa price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.78 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.59 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 21.2 K |
Surya Esa Perkasa lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Surya Esa stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Surya Esa's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Surya Esa returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Surya Esa has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
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Surya Esa regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Surya Esa stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Surya Esa stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Surya Esa stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
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Surya Esa Lagged Returns
When evaluating Surya Esa's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Surya Esa stock have on its future price. Surya Esa autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Surya Esa autocorrelation shows the relationship between Surya Esa stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Surya Esa Perkasa.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Surya Esa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Surya Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Surya with respect to the benefits of owning Surya Esa security.