Falcon Metals (Australia) Market Value
| FAL Stock | 0.14 0.01 7.69% |
| Symbol | Falcon |
Falcon Metals 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Falcon Metals' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Falcon Metals.
| 06/03/2024 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Falcon Metals on June 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Falcon Metals or generate 0.0% return on investment in Falcon Metals over 180 days. Falcon Metals is related to or competes with Northern Star, Evolution Mining, Bluescope Steel, Sandfire Resources, Aneka Tambang, Perseus Mining, and De Grey. Falcon Metals is entity of Australia. It is traded as Stock on AU exchange. More
Falcon Metals Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Falcon Metals' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Falcon Metals upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.18) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 36.67 | |||
| Value At Risk | (7.14) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.69 |
Falcon Metals Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Falcon Metals' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Falcon Metals' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Falcon Metals historical prices to predict the future Falcon Metals' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.11) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.85) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.83) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.95 |
Falcon Metals Backtested Returns
Falcon Metals secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.18, which denotes the company had a -0.18% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Falcon Metals exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Falcon Metals' Variance of 32.17, mean deviation of 3.91, and Standard Deviation of 5.67 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.3, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Falcon Metals are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Falcon Metals is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Falcon Metals has a negative expected return of -1.0%. Please make sure to confirm Falcon Metals' information ratio, total risk alpha, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the jensen alpha and treynor ratio , to decide if Falcon Metals performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.2 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
Falcon Metals has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Falcon Metals time series from 3rd of June 2024 to 1st of September 2024 and 1st of September 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Falcon Metals price movement. The serial correlation of -0.2 indicates that over 20.0% of current Falcon Metals price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.2 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.41 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Falcon Metals lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Falcon Metals stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Falcon Metals' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Falcon Metals returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Falcon Metals has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Falcon Metals regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Falcon Metals stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Falcon Metals stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Falcon Metals stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Falcon Metals Lagged Returns
When evaluating Falcon Metals' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Falcon Metals stock have on its future price. Falcon Metals autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Falcon Metals autocorrelation shows the relationship between Falcon Metals stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Falcon Metals.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Falcon Stock Analysis
When running Falcon Metals' price analysis, check to measure Falcon Metals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Falcon Metals is operating at the current time. Most of Falcon Metals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Falcon Metals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Falcon Metals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Falcon Metals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.