American Funds 2040 Fund Market Value
| FBGTX Fund | USD 21.40 0.09 0.42% |
| Symbol | American |
American Funds 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American Funds' mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American Funds.
| 05/27/2024 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in American Funds on May 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American Funds 2040 or generate 0.0% return on investment in American Funds over 180 days. American Funds is related to or competes with Royce Global, Mesirow Financial, Gabelli Global, Financials Ultrasector, Icon Financial, and Fidelity Advisor. The fund normally invests a greater portion of its assets in fixed income, equity-income and balanced funds as it approa... More
American Funds Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American Funds' mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American Funds 2040 upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.6741 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.13) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.83 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.08) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.999 |
American Funds Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American Funds' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American Funds' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American Funds historical prices to predict the future American Funds' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0655 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.11) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.068 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Funds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Funds 2040 Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider American Mutual Fund to be very steady. American Funds 2040 secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0704, which signifies that the fund had a 0.0704% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for American Funds 2040, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm American Funds' risk adjusted performance of 0.0655, and Mean Deviation of 0.4526 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0418%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.64, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, American Funds' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding American Funds is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.53 |
Modest predictability
American Funds 2040 has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American Funds time series from 27th of May 2024 to 25th of August 2024 and 25th of August 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American Funds 2040 price movement. The serial correlation of 0.53 indicates that about 53.0% of current American Funds price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.53 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.4 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.1 |
American Funds 2040 lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is American Funds mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American Funds' mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American Funds returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American Funds has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
American Funds regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American Funds mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American Funds mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American Funds mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
American Funds Lagged Returns
When evaluating American Funds' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American Funds mutual fund have on its future price. American Funds autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American Funds autocorrelation shows the relationship between American Funds mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American Funds 2040.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in American Mutual Fund
American Funds financial ratios help investors to determine whether American Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in American with respect to the benefits of owning American Funds security.
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