First Citizens Bancshares Stock Market Value
| FCNCB Stock | USD 1,813 36.96 2.00% |
| Symbol | First |
First Citizens 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Citizens' pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Citizens.
| 01/02/2025 |
| 02/01/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Citizens on January 2, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Citizens BancShares or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Citizens over 30 days. First Citizens is related to or competes with First Citizens, Farmers, Fentura Financial, First Keystone, and First National. First Citizens BancShares, Inc. operates as the holding company for First-Citizens Bank Trust Company that provides reta... More
First Citizens Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Citizens' pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Citizens BancShares upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 20.8 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.86) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.13 |
First Citizens Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Citizens' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Citizens' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Citizens historical prices to predict the future First Citizens' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0201 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.28) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0718 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Citizens' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Citizens BancShares Backtested Returns
At this point, First Citizens is very steady. First Citizens BancShares secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0518, which denotes the company had a 0.0518 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for First Citizens BancShares, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm First Citizens' Mean Deviation of 1.7, coefficient of variation of 6428.36, and Downside Deviation of 2.26 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.15%. First Citizens has a performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.49, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, First Citizens' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding First Citizens is expected to be smaller as well. First Citizens BancShares right now shows a risk of 2.81%. Please confirm First Citizens BancShares sortino ratio, potential upside, skewness, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and semi variance , to decide if First Citizens BancShares will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.72 |
Good predictability
First Citizens BancShares has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Citizens time series from 2nd of January 2025 to 17th of January 2025 and 17th of January 2025 to 1st of February 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Citizens BancShares price movement. The serial correlation of 0.72 indicates that around 72.0% of current First Citizens price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.72 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.25 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1077.1 |
First Citizens BancShares lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Citizens pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Citizens' pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Citizens returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Citizens has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Citizens regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Citizens pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Citizens pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Citizens pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Citizens Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Citizens' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Citizens pink sheet have on its future price. First Citizens autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Citizens autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Citizens pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Citizens BancShares.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in First Pink Sheet
When determining whether First Citizens BancShares offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of First Citizens' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of First Citizens Bancshares Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on First Citizens Bancshares Stock:Check out First Citizens Correlation, First Citizens Volatility and First Citizens Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on First Citizens. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
First Citizens technical pink sheet analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, pink sheet market cycles, or different charting patterns.