Commercial Vehicle (Germany) Market Value
| FDU Stock | 2.28 0.02 0.88% |
| Symbol | Commercial |
Commercial Vehicle 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Commercial Vehicle's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Commercial Vehicle.
| 10/24/2024 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Commercial Vehicle on October 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Commercial Vehicle Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in Commercial Vehicle over 30 days. Commercial Vehicle is related to or competes with Adtalem Global, STRAYER EDUCATION, Southwest Airlines, Lendlease, IDP EDUCATION, Strategic Education, and G8 EDUCATION. More
Commercial Vehicle Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Commercial Vehicle's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Commercial Vehicle Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.18) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 16.76 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.92) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.06 |
Commercial Vehicle Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Commercial Vehicle's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Commercial Vehicle's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Commercial Vehicle historical prices to predict the future Commercial Vehicle's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.10) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.38) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.97) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.6801 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Commercial Vehicle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Commercial Vehicle Backtested Returns
Commercial Vehicle secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.16, which signifies that the company had a -0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Commercial Vehicle Group exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Commercial Vehicle's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.10), standard deviation of 3.21, and Mean Deviation of 2.33 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.68, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Commercial Vehicle are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Commercial Vehicle is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Commercial Vehicle has a negative expected return of -0.5%. Please make sure to confirm Commercial Vehicle's accumulation distribution, and the relationship between the value at risk and day typical price , to decide if Commercial Vehicle performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.33 |
Below average predictability
Commercial Vehicle Group has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Commercial Vehicle time series from 24th of October 2024 to 8th of November 2024 and 8th of November 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Commercial Vehicle price movement. The serial correlation of 0.33 indicates that nearly 33.0% of current Commercial Vehicle price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.33 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.1 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Commercial Vehicle lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Commercial Vehicle stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Commercial Vehicle's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Commercial Vehicle returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Commercial Vehicle has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Commercial Vehicle regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Commercial Vehicle stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Commercial Vehicle stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Commercial Vehicle stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Commercial Vehicle Lagged Returns
When evaluating Commercial Vehicle's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Commercial Vehicle stock have on its future price. Commercial Vehicle autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Commercial Vehicle autocorrelation shows the relationship between Commercial Vehicle stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Commercial Vehicle Group.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Commercial Stock Analysis
When running Commercial Vehicle's price analysis, check to measure Commercial Vehicle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Commercial Vehicle is operating at the current time. Most of Commercial Vehicle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Commercial Vehicle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Commercial Vehicle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Commercial Vehicle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.