First Ottawa Bancshares Stock Market Value
| FOTB Stock | USD 120.01 0.01 0.01% |
| Symbol | First |
First Ottawa 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Ottawa's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Ottawa.
| 11/29/2023 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Ottawa on November 29, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Ottawa Bancshares or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Ottawa over 360 days. First Ottawa is related to or competes with Century Next, Citizens Financial, Triad Business, First Bankers, Greenville Federal, Coastal Carolina, and Citizens Bancorp. First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for American Commercial Bank Trust, National Associat... More
First Ottawa Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Ottawa's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Ottawa Bancshares upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | 0.0515 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.24 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.87) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.02 |
First Ottawa Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Ottawa's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Ottawa's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Ottawa historical prices to predict the future First Ottawa's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1461 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1934 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0191 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.89) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Ottawa's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Ottawa Bancshares Backtested Returns
At this point, First Ottawa is very steady. First Ottawa Bancshares secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.17, which denotes the company had a 0.17% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-two technical indicators for First Ottawa Bancshares, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm First Ottawa's Standard Deviation of 0.9594, mean deviation of 0.5367, and Variance of 0.9205 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.16%. First Ottawa has a performance score of 13 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.19, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning First Ottawa are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, First Ottawa is likely to outperform the market. First Ottawa Bancshares right now shows a risk of 0.92%. Please confirm First Ottawa Bancshares skewness, as well as the relationship between the day median price and relative strength index , to decide if First Ottawa Bancshares will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.08 |
Very weak reverse predictability
First Ottawa Bancshares has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Ottawa time series from 29th of November 2023 to 27th of May 2024 and 27th of May 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Ottawa Bancshares price movement. The serial correlation of -0.08 indicates that barely 8.0% of current First Ottawa price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.08 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.44 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.82 |
First Ottawa Bancshares lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Ottawa pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Ottawa's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Ottawa returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Ottawa has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Ottawa regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Ottawa pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Ottawa pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Ottawa pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Ottawa Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Ottawa's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Ottawa pink sheet have on its future price. First Ottawa autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Ottawa autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Ottawa pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Ottawa Bancshares.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in First Pink Sheet
First Ottawa financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First Ottawa security.