The Gabelli Equity Fund Market Value
| GCAEX Fund | USD 6.46 0.11 1.67% |
| Symbol | THE |
The Gabelli 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to The Gabelli's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of The Gabelli.
| 11/06/2023 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in The Gabelli on November 6, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding The Gabelli Equity or generate 0.0% return on investment in The Gabelli over 390 days. The Gabelli is related to or competes with Goldman Sachs, Aqr Sustainable, Calvert Developed, Doubleline Emerging, and Transamerica Emerging. The fund seeks to achieve its investment objective through a combination of capital appreciation and current income by i... More
The Gabelli Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure The Gabelli's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess The Gabelli Equity upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.6786 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.71 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.96) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.13 |
The Gabelli Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for The Gabelli's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as The Gabelli's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use The Gabelli historical prices to predict the future The Gabelli's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0657 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0503 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.10) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.983 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of The Gabelli's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gabelli Equity Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider THE Mutual Fund to be not too volatile. Gabelli Equity owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.1, which indicates the fund had a 0.1% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for The Gabelli Equity, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate The Gabelli's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0657, coefficient of variation of 1171.04, and Semi Deviation of 0.5841 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0785%. The entity has a beta of 0.0588, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, the Gabelli's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding the Gabelli is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.76 |
Good predictability
The Gabelli Equity has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between The Gabelli time series from 6th of November 2023 to 19th of May 2024 and 19th of May 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gabelli Equity price movement. The serial correlation of 0.76 indicates that around 76.0% of current The Gabelli price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.76 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.8 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.04 |
Gabelli Equity lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is The Gabelli mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting The Gabelli's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of The Gabelli returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that The Gabelli has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
The Gabelli regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If The Gabelli mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if The Gabelli mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in The Gabelli mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
The Gabelli Lagged Returns
When evaluating The Gabelli's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of The Gabelli mutual fund have on its future price. The Gabelli autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, The Gabelli autocorrelation shows the relationship between The Gabelli mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in The Gabelli Equity.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in THE Mutual Fund
The Gabelli financial ratios help investors to determine whether THE Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in THE with respect to the benefits of owning The Gabelli security.
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