Gema Grahasarana (Indonesia) Market Value
| GEMA Stock | IDR 234.00 4.00 1.74% |
| Symbol | Gema |
Gema Grahasarana 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gema Grahasarana's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gema Grahasarana.
| 02/01/2024 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gema Grahasarana on February 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Gema Grahasarana Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gema Grahasarana over 300 days. Gema Grahasarana is related to or competes with Fortune Indonesia, Fks Multi, Bayu Buana, Fast Food, and Enseval Putra. PT Gema Grahasarana Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an interior contractor and furniture manufacturer i... More
Gema Grahasarana Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gema Grahasarana's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Gema Grahasarana Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 36.52 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.44) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.39 |
Gema Grahasarana Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gema Grahasarana's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gema Grahasarana's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gema Grahasarana historical prices to predict the future Gema Grahasarana's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.24) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.81) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.54) |
Gema Grahasarana Tbk Backtested Returns
Gema Grahasarana Tbk holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0389, which attests that the entity had a -0.0389% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Gema Grahasarana Tbk exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Gema Grahasarana's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.53), standard deviation of 3.94, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.36, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Gema Grahasarana's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Gema Grahasarana is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Gema Grahasarana Tbk has a negative expected return of -0.16%. Please make sure to check out Gema Grahasarana's maximum drawdown, potential upside, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if Gema Grahasarana Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.53 |
Good reverse predictability
Gema Grahasarana Tbk has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gema Grahasarana time series from 1st of February 2024 to 30th of June 2024 and 30th of June 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gema Grahasarana Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.53 indicates that about 53.0% of current Gema Grahasarana price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.53 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.66 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 124.77 |
Gema Grahasarana Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gema Grahasarana stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gema Grahasarana's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gema Grahasarana returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gema Grahasarana has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Gema Grahasarana regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gema Grahasarana stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gema Grahasarana stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gema Grahasarana stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Gema Grahasarana Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gema Grahasarana's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gema Grahasarana stock have on its future price. Gema Grahasarana autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gema Grahasarana autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gema Grahasarana stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Gema Grahasarana Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectOther Information on Investing in Gema Stock
Gema Grahasarana financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gema Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gema with respect to the benefits of owning Gema Grahasarana security.