PT Gudang (Germany) Market Value
| GGG Stock | EUR 0.75 0.01 1.35% |
| Symbol | GGG |
PT Gudang 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to PT Gudang's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of PT Gudang.
| 12/08/2022 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in PT Gudang on December 8, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding PT Gudang Garam or generate 0.0% return on investment in PT Gudang over 720 days. PT Gudang is related to or competes with Scientific Games, Cars, CARSALESCOM, INTER CARS, GRUPO CARSO-A1, Commercial Vehicle, and COMMERCIAL VEHICLE. PT Gudang Garam Tbk produces and sells cigarettes in Indonesia and internationally More
PT Gudang Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure PT Gudang's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess PT Gudang Garam upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 23.33 | |||
| Value At Risk | (8.75) | |||
| Potential Upside | 8.11 |
PT Gudang Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for PT Gudang's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as PT Gudang's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use PT Gudang historical prices to predict the future PT Gudang's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.18) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.85) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.6408 |
PT Gudang Garam Backtested Returns
PT Gudang Garam retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0365, which implies the firm had a -0.0365% return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. PT Gudang exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check PT Gudang's market risk adjusted performance of 0.6508, and Information Ratio of (0.09) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The company owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of -0.35, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning PT Gudang are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, PT Gudang is likely to outperform the market. At this point, PT Gudang Garam has a negative expected return of -0.15%. Please make sure to check PT Gudang's coefficient of variation, variance, and the relationship between the mean deviation and standard deviation , to decide if PT Gudang Garam performance from the past will be repeated at some future date.
Auto-correlation | -0.1 |
Very weak reverse predictability
PT Gudang Garam has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between PT Gudang time series from 8th of December 2022 to 3rd of December 2023 and 3rd of December 2023 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of PT Gudang Garam price movement. The serial correlation of -0.1 indicates that less than 10.0% of current PT Gudang price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.1 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.02 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.02 |
PT Gudang Garam lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is PT Gudang stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting PT Gudang's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of PT Gudang returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that PT Gudang has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
PT Gudang regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If PT Gudang stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if PT Gudang stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in PT Gudang stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
PT Gudang Lagged Returns
When evaluating PT Gudang's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of PT Gudang stock have on its future price. PT Gudang autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, PT Gudang autocorrelation shows the relationship between PT Gudang stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in PT Gudang Garam.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in GGG Stock
PT Gudang financial ratios help investors to determine whether GGG Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in GGG with respect to the benefits of owning PT Gudang security.