Guggenheim Macro Opportunities Fund Market Value
| GIOSX Fund | USD 24.74 0.01 0.04% |
| Symbol | Guggenheim |
Guggenheim Macro 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Guggenheim Macro's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Guggenheim Macro.
| 05/27/2024 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Guggenheim Macro on May 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Guggenheim Macro Opportunities or generate 0.0% return on investment in Guggenheim Macro over 180 days. Guggenheim Macro is related to or competes with Ab Small, Touchstone Small, Vanguard Small-cap, Small Pany, Ancora/thelen Small-mid, and M3sixty Capital. The fund invests in a wide range of fixed-income and other debt and equity securities selected from a variety of sectors... More
Guggenheim Macro Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Guggenheim Macro's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Guggenheim Macro Opportunities upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.0947 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.91) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.6943 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.16) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.2055 |
Guggenheim Macro Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Guggenheim Macro's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Guggenheim Macro's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Guggenheim Macro historical prices to predict the future Guggenheim Macro's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1115 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0144 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (1.11) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.88 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guggenheim Macro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Guggenheim Macro Opp Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Guggenheim Mutual Fund to be very steady. Guggenheim Macro Opp holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.2, which attests that the entity had a 0.2% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Guggenheim Macro Opp, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please check out Guggenheim Macro's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 1.89, coefficient of variation of 458.11, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1115 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0226%. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.0082, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Guggenheim Macro's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Guggenheim Macro is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.67 |
Good predictability
Guggenheim Macro Opportunities has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Guggenheim Macro time series from 27th of May 2024 to 25th of August 2024 and 25th of August 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Guggenheim Macro Opp price movement. The serial correlation of 0.67 indicates that around 67.0% of current Guggenheim Macro price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.67 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.69 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Guggenheim Macro Opp lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Guggenheim Macro mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Guggenheim Macro's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Guggenheim Macro returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Guggenheim Macro has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Guggenheim Macro regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Guggenheim Macro mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Guggenheim Macro mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Guggenheim Macro mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Guggenheim Macro Lagged Returns
When evaluating Guggenheim Macro's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Guggenheim Macro mutual fund have on its future price. Guggenheim Macro autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Guggenheim Macro autocorrelation shows the relationship between Guggenheim Macro mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Guggenheim Macro Opportunities.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Guggenheim Mutual Fund
Guggenheim Macro financial ratios help investors to determine whether Guggenheim Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Guggenheim with respect to the benefits of owning Guggenheim Macro security.
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