Golden Tobacco (India) Market Value
| GOLDENTOBC | 37.87 0.38 0.99% |
| Symbol | Golden |
Golden Tobacco 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Golden Tobacco's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Golden Tobacco.
| 10/27/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Golden Tobacco on October 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Golden Tobacco Limited or generate 0.0% return on investment in Golden Tobacco over 30 days. Golden Tobacco is related to or competes with Dhunseri Investments, Welspun Investments, MIC Electronics, Kalyani Investment, AUTHUM INVESTMENT, and Industrial Investment. Golden Tobacco is entity of India. It is traded as Stock on NSE exchange. More
Golden Tobacco Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Golden Tobacco's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Golden Tobacco Limited upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.0 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.88) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.99 |
Golden Tobacco Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Golden Tobacco's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Golden Tobacco's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Golden Tobacco historical prices to predict the future Golden Tobacco's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.42) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.09) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Golden Tobacco's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Golden Tobacco Backtested Returns
Golden Tobacco holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0624, which attests that the entity had a -0.0624% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Golden Tobacco exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Golden Tobacco's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.01), standard deviation of 2.26, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (2.08) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.0337, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Golden Tobacco's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Golden Tobacco is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Golden Tobacco has a negative expected return of -0.14%. Please make sure to check out Golden Tobacco's treynor ratio, accumulation distribution, price action indicator, as well as the relationship between the potential upside and day median price , to decide if Golden Tobacco performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.14 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
Golden Tobacco Limited has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Golden Tobacco time series from 27th of October 2024 to 11th of November 2024 and 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Golden Tobacco price movement. The serial correlation of -0.14 indicates that less than 14.0% of current Golden Tobacco price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.14 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.21 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.67 |
Golden Tobacco lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Golden Tobacco stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Golden Tobacco's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Golden Tobacco returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Golden Tobacco has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Golden Tobacco regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Golden Tobacco stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Golden Tobacco stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Golden Tobacco stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Golden Tobacco Lagged Returns
When evaluating Golden Tobacco's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Golden Tobacco stock have on its future price. Golden Tobacco autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Golden Tobacco autocorrelation shows the relationship between Golden Tobacco stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Golden Tobacco Limited.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Golden Stock Analysis
When running Golden Tobacco's price analysis, check to measure Golden Tobacco's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Golden Tobacco is operating at the current time. Most of Golden Tobacco's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Golden Tobacco's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Golden Tobacco's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Golden Tobacco to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.