Guidepath Servative Allocation Fund Market Value
| GPTCX Fund | USD 11.19 0.03 0.27% |
| Symbol | Guidepath(r) |
Guidepath(r) Conservative 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Guidepath(r) Conservative's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Guidepath(r) Conservative.
| 12/19/2024 |
| 01/18/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Guidepath(r) Conservative on December 19, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Guidepath Servative Allocation or generate 0.0% return on investment in Guidepath(r) Conservative over 30 days. Guidepath(r) Conservative is related to or competes with Guidemark, Guidemark Large, Guidemark(r) Large, Guidemark Smallmid, Guidemark World, Guidepath(r) Growth, and Guidepath(r) Conservative. The fund operates as a fund of funds, investing primarily in registered mutual funds, including exchange-traded funds More
Guidepath(r) Conservative Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Guidepath(r) Conservative's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Guidepath Servative Allocation upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.11) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.14 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.62) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.5372 |
Guidepath(r) Conservative Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Guidepath(r) Conservative's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Guidepath(r) Conservative's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Guidepath(r) Conservative historical prices to predict the future Guidepath(r) Conservative's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.12) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guidepath(r) Conservative's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Guidepath(r) Conservative Backtested Returns
Guidepath(r) Conservative holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0129, which attests that the entity had a -0.0129% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Guidepath(r) Conservative exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Guidepath(r) Conservative's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.11), standard deviation of 0.3896, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.04) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.17, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Guidepath(r) Conservative's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Guidepath(r) Conservative is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.4 |
Poor reverse predictability
Guidepath Servative Allocation has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Guidepath(r) Conservative time series from 19th of December 2024 to 3rd of January 2025 and 3rd of January 2025 to 18th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Guidepath(r) Conservative price movement. The serial correlation of -0.4 indicates that just about 40.0% of current Guidepath(r) Conservative price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.4 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.28 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Guidepath(r) Conservative lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Guidepath(r) Conservative mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Guidepath(r) Conservative's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Guidepath(r) Conservative returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Guidepath(r) Conservative has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Guidepath(r) Conservative regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Guidepath(r) Conservative mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Guidepath(r) Conservative mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Guidepath(r) Conservative mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Guidepath(r) Conservative Lagged Returns
When evaluating Guidepath(r) Conservative's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Guidepath(r) Conservative mutual fund have on its future price. Guidepath(r) Conservative autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Guidepath(r) Conservative autocorrelation shows the relationship between Guidepath(r) Conservative mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Guidepath Servative Allocation.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Other Information on Investing in Guidepath(r) Mutual Fund
Guidepath(r) Conservative financial ratios help investors to determine whether Guidepath(r) Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Guidepath(r) with respect to the benefits of owning Guidepath(r) Conservative security.
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