Gulistan Spinning (Pakistan) Market Value
| GUSM Stock | 9.54 0.86 9.91% |
| Symbol | Gulistan |
Gulistan Spinning 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gulistan Spinning's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gulistan Spinning.
| 11/03/2024 |
| 12/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gulistan Spinning on November 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Gulistan Spinning Mills or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gulistan Spinning over 30 days.
Gulistan Spinning Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gulistan Spinning's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Gulistan Spinning Mills upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.15) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 26.86 | |||
| Value At Risk | (10.16) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.49 |
Gulistan Spinning Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gulistan Spinning's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gulistan Spinning's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gulistan Spinning historical prices to predict the future Gulistan Spinning's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.09) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.87) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (2.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.17 |
Gulistan Spinning Mills Backtested Returns
Gulistan Spinning Mills holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0815, which attests that the entity had a -0.0815% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Gulistan Spinning Mills exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Gulistan Spinning's Standard Deviation of 7.12, risk adjusted performance of (0.09), and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 1.18 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.82, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Gulistan Spinning are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Gulistan Spinning is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Gulistan Spinning Mills has a negative expected return of -0.59%. Please make sure to check out Gulistan Spinning's information ratio, total risk alpha, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the jensen alpha and treynor ratio , to decide if Gulistan Spinning Mills performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.25 |
Weak reverse predictability
Gulistan Spinning Mills has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gulistan Spinning time series from 3rd of November 2024 to 18th of November 2024 and 18th of November 2024 to 3rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gulistan Spinning Mills price movement. The serial correlation of -0.25 indicates that over 25.0% of current Gulistan Spinning price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.25 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.45 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.51 |
Gulistan Spinning Mills lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gulistan Spinning stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gulistan Spinning's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gulistan Spinning returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gulistan Spinning has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Gulistan Spinning regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gulistan Spinning stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gulistan Spinning stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gulistan Spinning stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Gulistan Spinning Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gulistan Spinning's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gulistan Spinning stock have on its future price. Gulistan Spinning autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gulistan Spinning autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gulistan Spinning stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Gulistan Spinning Mills.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Gulistan Spinning
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Gulistan Spinning position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Gulistan Spinning will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Gulistan Spinning could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Gulistan Spinning when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Gulistan Spinning - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Gulistan Spinning Mills to buy it.
The correlation of Gulistan Spinning is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Gulistan Spinning moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Gulistan Spinning Mills moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Gulistan Spinning can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.