Gharibwal Cement (Pakistan) Market Value
| GWLC Stock | 39.66 1.71 4.51% |
| Symbol | Gharibwal |
Gharibwal Cement 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gharibwal Cement's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gharibwal Cement.
| 10/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gharibwal Cement on October 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Gharibwal Cement or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gharibwal Cement over 30 days.
Gharibwal Cement Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gharibwal Cement's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Gharibwal Cement upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.18 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0802 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 19.82 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.20) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.77 |
Gharibwal Cement Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gharibwal Cement's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gharibwal Cement's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gharibwal Cement historical prices to predict the future Gharibwal Cement's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0921 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6527 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.19) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1082 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.27) |
Gharibwal Cement Backtested Returns
Gharibwal Cement appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Gharibwal Cement holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.11, which attests that the entity had a 0.11% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Gharibwal Cement, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize Gharibwal Cement's risk adjusted performance of 0.0921, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.26) to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Gharibwal Cement holds a performance score of 8. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -1.67, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Gharibwal Cement are expected to decrease by larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoil, Gharibwal Cement is expected to outperform it. Please check Gharibwal Cement's market risk adjusted performance, semi deviation, coefficient of variation, as well as the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to make a quick decision on whether Gharibwal Cement's current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.28 |
Poor predictability
Gharibwal Cement has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gharibwal Cement time series from 29th of October 2024 to 13th of November 2024 and 13th of November 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gharibwal Cement price movement. The serial correlation of 0.28 indicates that nearly 28.0% of current Gharibwal Cement price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.28 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.2 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.48 |
Gharibwal Cement lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gharibwal Cement stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gharibwal Cement's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gharibwal Cement returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gharibwal Cement has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Gharibwal Cement regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gharibwal Cement stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gharibwal Cement stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gharibwal Cement stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Gharibwal Cement Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gharibwal Cement's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gharibwal Cement stock have on its future price. Gharibwal Cement autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gharibwal Cement autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gharibwal Cement stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Gharibwal Cement.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Gharibwal Cement
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Gharibwal Cement position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Gharibwal Cement will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Gharibwal Cement could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Gharibwal Cement when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Gharibwal Cement - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Gharibwal Cement to buy it.
The correlation of Gharibwal Cement is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Gharibwal Cement moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Gharibwal Cement moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Gharibwal Cement can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.